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Cobalt hydroxide exports were described as “less than a half” and “approximately one third” of the export volumes allocated for the fourth quarter of 2025, sources said, mainly due to delays with paperwork and logistics in the DRC.
The DRC quota for the fourth quarter of 2025 allowed for 18,125 tonnes of cobalt to be exported from October 2025 through the end of the year, which was later extended through the end of the first quarter of 2026.
This was in addition to the annual quota for 2026, which caps exports for all producers in the DRC at 87,000 tonnes (or 7,250 tonnes per month). On top of that, there is the potential for an additional strategic quota of 9,600 tonnes to be added on, at the government’s discretion.
But no exports left until January.
According to a source familiar with the DRC’s export border documentation, from December 2025 through the end of February, only 7,800 tonnes of cobalt have been cleared for exports.
Clearance for exports does not mean that the exports have happened, this source said, citing trucking issues.
“You see the massive discrepancies here,” the source added.
These comments point at how much cobalt hydroxide that was supposed to leave the DRC in the last three months of 2025, has left the DRC in the three months of 2026 under the new rules.
“Lower than expectations,” another source said about the quarterly shipments.
More than 70% of global supply of mined cobalt has been coming from the DRC in recent years. During February-October 2025, to curb oversupply, the DRC government banned cobalt exports, and then replaced the ban with the quota system in October 2025.
Market participants have expected actual export shipments in early 2026 to be slow due to logistical disruptions, such as a bridge collapse on a key route, and paperwork issues.
“We would say less than 50% of the [Q4/Q1 cobalt export] quota has been filled, as the material is not leaving DRC still,” a DRC-based source that operates a logistics business said.
Cobalt is a by-product of mining copper in the DRC, a key supplier for both metals. Cobalt hydroxide, a feedstock for cobalt metal and battery salts, is usually sent by trucks to the South African port of Durban, where it gets sent into China for processing.
Interested in cobalt economic modeling? Discover our long-term forecasts for staying ahead of this evolving market.
China’s imports of cobalt intermediates continued to decline in January-February, as continuing export disruptions in the DRC tightened feedstock availability.
Fastmarkets analysts have been forecasting a tightening cobalt market in 2026 and 2027 due to the DRC quota system, Fastmarkets’ senior analyst Robert Searle said.
“The quotas were already a significant cut on pre-ban monthly volumes,” Searle said. “Reports of further disruptions and miners not being able to fully take advantage of their allocation are only likely to worsen the situation.”
“Deficits of around 5,000-6,000 tonnes were expected this year and next, as refineries in China had to deal with a tighter supply of intermediates,” Searle said. According to the analyst, if the market has issues at the end of the first quarter of 2026, Chinese buyers are going to experience an ongoing squeeze to cobalt intermediate supply through to the middle of the year.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for cobalt hydroxide 30% Co min, cif China averaged $25.44-25.80 per lb in January-February, up by around 340% year on year.
The availability of cobalt hydroxide has been limited on the spot market, Fastmarkets heard from several sources during pricing sessions.
The export quota remains at the full discretion of the DRC’s Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets (ARECOMS), one of the market participants said.
According to the previous announcements from DRC officials, the unused quotas may be withdrawn.
But the same source cited concerns about demand for cobalt from the consumer electronics and the automotive sectors, which has been slower than expected.
Cobalt is essential for energy transition due to its use in batteries for consumer electronics such as laptops and smartphones, and in batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) that use nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) chemistries.
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