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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has decided to permit the shipment of some cobalt volumes from next month. The current export suspension is extended until October 15. This decision is according to an official press release issued by the Board of Directors of the Regulatory and Control Authority for Strategic mineral Substances markets (ARECOMS) on Sunday, September 21. A quota policy will be implemented starting October 16. A maximum of 18,125 tonnes is permitted to be exported until the end of the year, according to the statement by ARECOMS.
“Global cobalt stocks have already fallen significantly due to the export ban. We now believe that a total suspension of exports from the DRC is not necessary,” Chairman of ARECOMS Chairman Patrick Mpoyi Luabeya told Fastmarkets.
“The quota system will suffice to make the final adjustments needed. These adjustments are to rebalance the market over the coming months and in the years ahead,” he added.
Plans for the quota system for 2026 and 2027 were published with a base quota of 87,000 tonnes permitted. This equals 7,250 tonnes per month. This is roughly half of monthly export volumes in 2024, according to market participants.
ARECOMS will also receive a ‘strategic quota’ which is capped at 9,600 tonnes for 2026. The strategic quota is reserved for projects of national strategic importance. ARECOMS has sole discretion over its allocation, according to the statement by ARECOMS.
ARECOMS said it reserves the right to adjust quota volumes on a quarterly basis. This is in the event of a “significant imbalance in the cobalt market.” ARECOMS also stated the right to adjust the 2027 permitted volumes. This depends on the cobalt market’s evolution over the next fourteen months. It includes if prospects arise to localize processing of hydroxide into higher value-added products.
“The recent announcement from the DRC isn’t a huge surprise and should go a long way to finally balancing the market. This aligns with their stated aim. With only 7,250 MT contained going out per month over the next two years, roughly half of what was being exported previously, it should significantly knock out excess Chinese [cobalt] metal production. Moreover, it maintains supply for Sulphate and Oxide,” a trader source said.
There were expectations among market participants, the previous week ahead of the scheduled ban expiry of September 22. They anticipated that an extension to the ban would be announced and imposed until the end of the year. This extension might be followed by a quota system in the new year.
“I didn’t think the quotas would come in so soon just as prices are starting to jump. However, the clarity on the next two years will be appreciated by the market. Let’s see what the price reaction will be this week,” a second trader source said.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for cobalt hydroxide 30% Co min, cif China, was $14.40-14.60 per lb on Friday, September 19, unchanged from September 18. This is up from $13.30-13.50 per lb on September 1.
The DRC, which accounted for 78% of global cobalt production in 2024, had outlined its ambition. The country seeks to expand domestic processing and increase value retention within the country as one of the major goals of the export suspension.
The quota system with plans for permitted volumes for 2026 and 2027 looks to be a chance for the country. This aims to have more say in its mineral exports. It is an attempt to incentivize domestic processing, according to market participants at the Fastmarkets European BRM conference in Lisbon, Portugal which ran from September 16-18.
Responding to whether material within the strategic quota would be exported by ARECOMS themselves, Luabeya told Fastmarkets that the “strategic stock is reserved for projects of national strategic importance”. However, the DRC does not currently possess any active cobalt refining capacity.
A total of 3,625 tonnes is permitted for export in October 2025. With a roughly three-month lead time for shipments to reach China from the DRC, these shipments will begin to arrive in January.
“The quota system will go some way to prevent stock build up in China for a rainy day which pressures the price. This directly impacts the royalties that the DRC receive for cobalt whilst the actual material just sits in a warehouse outside of the country,” a third trader source said.
With assistance from Andrea Hotter.