Five key talking points ahead of Fastmarkets’ Bauxite & Alumina Conference

Take a look at the five key talking points across the aluminium raw material markets ahead of Fastmarkets’ Bauxite & Alumina Conference

What’s on the minds of producers, refiners, traders and other stakeholders across the bauxite and alumina supply chain? Take a look at our list of key talking points ahead of Fastmarkets’ annual Bauxite & Alumina Conference, taking place in Miami, Florida, on April 22-23.

1. Supply tightness caused by curtailments and disruptions

Supply tightness has been a major talking point for the alumina market in 2024, and will likely dominate much of the conversation in Miami.

Alcoa’s announcement that it would curtail its Kwinana Alumina Refinery caused an uptick in bullish sentiment in January, while many questioned how the market would respond and recover from the lost production.

The general sentiment is that the curtailment — which began in early April — will have a slightly delayed impact. Many expect the alumina market will begin to feel the lost production in the later half of the year, when the phased ramp-down really kicks in.

Despite this, vulnerability in the supply chain remains front of mind while the market recovers from volatility and disruption elsewhere.

The January announcement of Kwinana’s curtailment was compounded by ongoing concerns over bauxite supply after a fire at fuel depot in the Guinean capital Conakry in December caused delays to the shipments of raw materials to China.

Supply concerns reared their head once more in early March, when alumina refineries in the Gladstone area of Queensland, Australia, began to operate at reduced capacity following a leak at a natural gas pipeline.

Fastmarkets heard that supply from Rio Tinto and Queensland Alumina Limited refineries would be affected until the second half of April.

Gladstone woes were quickly followed by reports of undisclosed logistic disruptions out of Indian alumina producer National Alumina Co (Nalco) refineries. The alumina market continues to seek clarity on the current situation in Nalco.

Evidently, supply tightness has become a very hot topic this year, with the market eager to discuss these issues further with colleagues in Miami next week.

2. All eyes on LME aluminium price

The three-month aluminium futures price on the London Metal Exchange has shown continued strength after breaching a key resistance point of $2,400 per tonne on April 3.

After the close of trading on Friday April 12, the US and UK governments announced they would begin restricting the trading of new Russia-origin aluminium, copper and nickel on global exchanges and in over-the-counter derivatives, effective from April 13.

By the time the LME opened trading on the morning of Monday April 15, the aluminium price had already reached an intra-day high of $2,728 per tonne — its highest level since June 10, 2022 — before retreating to $2,550 per tonne at 9am.

At the time of writing, the three-month aluminium price has maintained this strength, trading at $2,544.50 per tonne — up 9% from $2,335.50 per tonne at the beginning of the year.

3. Ex-China demand amid a closed import arbitrage window

The import arbitrage window with China currently remains closed, and has been for some time now, prompting market participants to question the strength and resilience of ex-China demand.

While supply tightness has supported alumina prices of late and dominated much of the conversation, demand remains a pressing topic.

Especially since Indian aluminium producer Vedanta aims to ease all reliance on exported ore following the successful completion of its expansion project, as announced on April 4.

Despite the closed import arbitrage window, there are signs Chinese demand remains robust and is recovering from a 2023 slump.

China imported 643,508 tonnes of alumina in January and February of 2024, up by 64.9% from 390,188 tonnes in the first two months of 2023. Among the imports, 351,293 tonnes were delivered to China in January and 292,215 tonnes in February, according to Chinese customs data.

But, with Fastmarkets’ daily benchmark alumina index, fob Australia remaining high at $377.08 per tonne on Tuesday April 16, Chinese reluctance to purchase may continue.

4. Protecting and diversifying supply chains

Protecting the preexisting bauxite supply chain, while also providing it room to diversify will be another key talking point in Miami.

Volatility in Guinea from the oil explosion in December, followed by political disruption in February, prompted many in the market to question the sustainability of China’s reliance on Guinea for its imported ore.

Guinea accounts for more than half of the 125.66 million tonnes of bauxite China imports annually.

Greek aluminium producer Mytilineos — the largest European producer of bauxite — recently secured a license from the Ghana Integrated Aluminium Development Corporation (GIADEC) to explore and extract bauxite in Northwest Africa.

But with Indonesia still banning its exports — despite issuing new mine licenses for 14 million tonnes of bauxite recently — diversifying and protecting the bauxite value chain is a priority for many.

5. Aluminium demand

Demand for aluminium within the physical market will also remain a key talking point, with global premiums increasing due to tighter supply while the overall demand picture in most regions remains largely subdued.

European aluminium premiums have found continued support since the start of the year, with higher premiums in Asia leading to increased replacement costs and continued disruptions to trade via the Red Sea reducing the availability of units into Rotterdam.

Fastmarkets assessed the aluminium P1020A premium, in-whs dp Rotterdam at $290-305 per tonne on Friday, rising from $275-295 per tonne one week earlier and up by 47% from $190-215 per tonne at the beginning of the year.

But despite heightened nearby supply concerns and fresh restrictions from UK and US governments on Russian metal trading, participants continue to note slow consumer demand from key end-use sectors such as construction and automotive.

Car production in Germany was relatively flat month on month in March at 372,800 vehicles, from 371,140 vehicles in February, according to German association VDA, while March’s production figures came in 15% lower in relation to the previous year.

In Japan, physical premiums have also rallied on reports of tight supply and wide LME spreads, while downstream demand remains largely stable according to market participants.

Fastmarkets settled the aluminium P1020A (MJP) quarterly premium, cif Japan at $145-148 per tonne on Friday, $55-58 per tonne (or 62.78%) higher than for the first quarter, which was $90 per tonne on January 17.

“Current expectations for demand [in the building and construction sector] in the coming fiscal year are that it would either be the same or worse than the last, recovery isn’t expected, and new building starts don’t look promising,” a downstream participant said.

In its latest production results, Toyota, the world’s leading car manufacturer in 2023, produced a cumulative total of 463,928 units in the country between January and February 2024, down 6.2% from the same period in 2023, amid the suspension of some production lines in 2024. Toyota’s domestic sales, stood at 216,371 units in January and February 2024, down 24.4% over the same period the previous year.

To find out more about the Fastmarkets bauxite and alumina conference, click here.

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