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Key takeaways:
When you sit down to discuss what’s ahead for paper in Latin America, it feels a lot like catching up with an old friend: there’s good news, some bumps in the road and, if you listen carefully, you can almost trace the conversation back to the causes.
Over the past few months, we’ve been discussing tariffs, restrictions on animal protein, changing demand patterns, and cash-and-carry purchasing habits. But today, I want to walk you through four simple projections derived from those stories that will influence how you view this industry in 2026. Think of it as a guided tour: I’ll explain what’s happening, why it is essential and what to watch for as the bigger picture comes into focus.
Remember how exports of meat and other animal proteins stalled between the second and third quarters of 2025, leaving Brazilian corrugated shipments flat at best and shrinking at worst? That chapter is slowly closing. Markets such as the US and China, which had restrictions, are reopening to Brazilian beef, poultry and pork. The US lifted tariffs on Brazilian beef by the end of the fourth quarter and China later cleared Brazil to resume poultry exports after restrictions were imposed in the second quarter. What does this mean for paper?
Interested in gaining access to more market insights? Dive deeper into how Brazil’s protein rebound is influencing the global pulp supply chain—learn more.
Corrugated boxes depend heavily on agribusiness exports in Brazil, with about 65% of all consumption tied to the sector. When refrigerated containers leave the docks full of chicken or beef, demand for corrugated board to pack them ticks up and, because the industry always balances exports with domestic needs, internal consumption perks up too. So put a pin in your calendar for early 2026: do not be surprised to see the loading ramps humming again and orders for boxes climbing off the floor, slightly above normal in the first quarter as pent-up demand is likely to go overseas.
Our projection for the country’s total containerboard demand is 1.2% growth in 2026, 61,000 tonnes above 2025 levels, despite weaker economic and GDP forecasts for the country. For total shipments of corrugated boxes and board assessed by Empapel, we project growth of 1.6-2.0% for the year versus 2025.
You have seen the headlines we discussed throughout the year: 25-35% duties on Chinese boxboard and graphic papers in 2024, antidumping actions in late 2025 and, just in December 2025, mirror tariffs against several Asian countries, matching what Washington does elsewhere. Do not see these as accidents of protectionism or just a blip of data: listen to the reasoning behind them. Mexico is not just trying to slow down a shipment or two; it aims to be the gatekeeper of a nearshoring neighborhood.
Industries that moved closer to the US border to serve the US market are struggling to compete with cheaper imports from other countries. Mexico is rerouting cargoes to the US, pushing down paper mill operating rates across Mexico. The last thing Mexico’s government wants is for products already hit with US tariffs to slip through its territory and reappear on the other side under free-trade deals.
That’s why duties are slapped on Chinese, third-party and even Brazilian paper exports. If shipments could be rerouted through Mexico into the US without extra costs, it would threaten the entire nearshoring effort. Think of tariffs as a city gate, allowing trade but blocking those who try to slip in products hit with levies elsewhere. These measures mirror US duties to close that loophole and protect the integrity of the nearshore supply chain.
Raising prices on Asian exports to Mexico and punishing cheaper sales creates a bottleneck. Brazilian shipments destined for Mexico have already slowed down as import duties reduced Brazilian volumes competitiveness. Do not mistake “temporary” for “insignificant.” Even a few quarters of emptier containers and idle ships can leave lasting marks on orders and confidence, especially in the boxboard market.
Want to learn more about how trade changes impact regional dynamics? Explore how Mexico’s evolving trade flows are opening new opportunities for the packaging sector. Click here for a closer look.
Our forecast is that boxboard mill operating rates in Mexico will recover to 78% in 2026, after hovering around 75-76% in 2025, supported by demand recovery and less competition against imports. Consumption will grow 1.8% in 2026 to nearly 1.14 million tonnes after dropping for three years in a row since 2022, when it reached 1.23 million tonnes.
The flip side of the Mexican story has a silver lining for those of us south of the Yucatán. If Chinese and other Asian exporters are shut out of Mexico by the same measures that already slowed Brazil’s shipments, they will not sit idle, but instead, will look elsewhere for markets. Mexico alone accounts for roughly 50% of all Chinese boxboard exports to Latin America, for example and those sellers will definitely look for alternative markets to outlet this excess production, now roadblocked.
Argentina, Peru and Brazil start to look attractive when you’re trying to place volumes that previously went into Monterrey or Guadalajara. That means more competition but also more options for converters and printers. Prices will feel the pressure and the story of Asia taking market share becomes more local.
It would be naive to focus only on cross-border opportunities and ignore what’s happening inside Brazil since 2022, limiting boxboard consumption. From the macroeconomic perspective, all signs point to the Brazilian economy slowing down as we approach 2026. Formal employment is reaching its growth limit; household debt is at record levels and interest rates remain very high. However, we do foresee some room for decline mid-year ahead, as consumer inflation is starting to show negative rates — or, in other words, deflation.
Low- and middle-class households, however, are barely using income to service debt or buy new goods. They, who usually drive demand for paperboard in consumer goods and e-commerce packaging in mass numbers whenever disposable income levels increase — as a result of higher employment and consumer price deflation — are increasingly spending on online gambling and e-gaming. This shifts money out of the real economy, leaving fewer Reais for paper-product consumption. Domestic cardboard demand was already soft in 2025 for these reasons and the trend is likely to continue or worsen next year.
Boxboard demand in Brazil fell by nearly 2.1% in 2025 according to our expectations and, in the best case scenario, should remain stable (+0.1%) in 2026. IBÁ’s (Industria Brasileira de Árvores) association numbers for the domestic cartonboard market tell a similar story. Domestic sales also dropped by 2.1% year-to-date through the third quarter, while exports retreated 2.7%, also hurt by smaller shipments to Mexico, causing production to fall by 2.3%.
If you step back and look at the four projections side by side, they tell a coherent story rather than four disconnected bullet points. The reopening of protein markets raises the sails of the export-driven corrugated industry even as tariffs temper specific trade lanes; Asian exporters forced out of one huge market create ripples that reach the Rio de la Plata and the Andes; and a home economy running on empty reminds us that domestic demand is not a given but a variable to manage.
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