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Key takeaways:
The lithium market has been oversupplied for several years, in part due to expectations of huge increases in demand for lithium, driven by the energy transition.
Abundant spodumene supply from Australia, combined with rapid expansions in China’s lepidolite and brine production, has left inventories high across the value chain.
As a result, lithium prices have been broadly falling since 2022. Fastmarkets’ assessment of the lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range exw domestic China, dropped to 72,500-73,000 yuan ($10,163-10,233) per tonne on October 10. This was down from 590,000-605,000 yuan per tonne on November 17, 2022, when the market was experiencing tight supply.
Although some producers across Asia, Australasia and Latin America have curtailed output or delayed expansion projects in response to sustained low prices, the market was still oversupplied, according to Fastmarkets’ analysis. Delegates to LME Week will be focused on short-term supply shocks that could move the market closer to supply-demand balance.
LME Week discussions were also likely to include the effects of a recent announcement by China’s Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs.
It announced export controls on a range of lithium-related products on October 9, which will take effect from November 8, adding a new layer of regulatory risk to global supply chains already grappling with price volatility and overcapacity in the midstream sector.
Under the new rules, exporters will be required to obtain licenses before exporting affected products – including high-performance lithium-ion batteries, cathode materials, related manufacturing equipment and production technology.
The list of affected products covers items central to global cell manufacturing, such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials with capacity ≥156 mAh/g and compaction density ≥2.5 g/cm³, nickel-cobalt-manganese and nickel-cobalt-aluminium hydroxides used as ternary precursors, and equipment including roller kilns, mixers and heat presses.
Exporters must now clearly mark controlled goods as “dual-use items,” and those not subject to control must include the remark “not a controlled item” with technical justification. Customs will be able to halt shipments pending review if any declaration is deemed incomplete or inaccurate.
Walter Zhang, Fastmarkets’ senior analyst covering electrical storage systems (ESS), analysis and forecasts, said that the recent export control on lithium batteries mainly targeted next-generation high-energy-density cells, such as semi-solid-state and all-solid-state batteries, rather than current mainstream LFP or NCM cells.
“Export control does not mean an outright export ban, but rather a stricter approval process,” he said. “We believe that the primary intent is to counter measures such as the US OBBB [One Big Beautiful Bill] Act, while preventing potential technology transfer demands from European or American governments and avoiding the military or dual-use applications of advanced battery technologies.
“At the same time, the policy ensures that the export and sales of mainstream NCM (230-280 Wh per kg) and LFP (160-210 Wh per kg) batteries for EV and ESS applications remain unaffected,” Zhang added.
While the market was still assessing the potential price effects, several participants said that the new measures could slow technology transfer and complicate partnerships between Chinese producers and Western battery makers.
“The question is whether major [Chinese] companies with plans to expand operations outside China would be affected by this,” one source told Fastmarkets. “The measures may be more aimed at restricting smaller companies from entering technology-sharing agreements with Western partners.”
Market participants said that another key topic of discussion at LME Week was likely to be the continuing speculation on supply, particularly the restart date of Chinese battery giant CATL’s Jianxiawo project, but also smaller operations including Zange’s salt lake project, and seven lepidolite mines across China that are seeking mining approvals.
But official updates have been sparse and market speculation has fueled both bullish and bearish assumptions on short-term supply, as well as the ‘knock-on effect’ to spot prices, market sources said.
Market attention has primarily been focused on recent reports that CATL could restart mining at its Jianxiawo lepidolite project in Jiangxi province sooner than expected.
On September 9, local media reported that CATL’s application for a mining permit was progressing faster than anticipated, with production expected to resume “very soon.”
Since then, other media outlets have forecast a restart as early as October 9, although there has been no confirmation of a restart at the time of publication on October 10.
CATL has not officially commented on the various reports, but speculation over the restart date weighed on sentiment, creating volatility on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) lithium carbonate futures and exerting fresh pressure on spodumene spot prices.
Fastmarkets’ daily assessment of the spodumene, minimum 6% Li2O, spot price, cif China, was $810-840 per tonne on October 10, flat from the previous session, but down from recent highs of $1,000-1,055 per tonne on August 19.
Meanwhile, Chinese miner Zangge Mining has officially received a mining permit from the Ministry of National Resources of its Qarhan salt lake in Qinghai province in northwest China, after the project was asked to halt operations since July 17, the company announced on October 9.
The new mining permit was valid from August 10, 2025, to December 1, 2029, with exploitable mineral species including potassium salt, rock salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore as well as boron ore.
Fastmarkets learned from industry sources that mining activity has not yet resumed, however.
And with an expected rise in raw materials supply, the most traded lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) dropped by 1.3% to 72,740 yuan per tonne on October 10.
Similarly, Fastmarkets’ daily assessment of the lithium carbonate, 99.5% Li2CO3 min, battery grade, spot price range, exw domestic China, was 72,500-73,000 yuan per tonne on October 10, down from 72,600-73,500 yuan per tonne a day earlier.
Export licensing for advanced materials could tighten the flow of high-grade cathodes and production technology to overseas ventures.
And the potential restart of major domestic projects in China – as well as the uninterrupted production from other lepidolite producers that some sources expected to be closed for a period of time – may amplify the supply surplus narrative that has dominatied lithium prices throughout 2024 and 2025.
Market participants heading into LME Week expected discussions to focus on whether these new Chinese policy developments – rather than supply-demand fundamentals alone – will dictate sentiment in the months ahead.
To learn more about what’s happening at LME Week 2025, visit our dedicated content hub where we’re regularly updating articles and insights from our metals market experts.