Ambitious investment in scrap-intensive sectors a boon for Mexican non-ferrous secondary markets

Mexico’s strategic role in automotive nearshoring is fueling demand for recycled aluminium, with investment in scrap-intensive sectors boosting its non-ferrous secondary markets. Despite tariff uncertainties, USMCA compliance and EV production growth continue to attract global manufacturers.

Why Mexico leads in automotive nearshoring

Mexico has been chosen as a strategic production hub by multiple entities along the global automotive supply chain. They are capitalizing on favorable labor costs and the country’s status as a strategic Latin American trade hub. Nearshoring is still a prevalent theme in the region.

When discussing Mexico automotive nearshoring, it’s important to note the country’s ability to provide cost-effective solutions. Despite the uncertainty generated by recent moves concerning import tariffs, Mexico remains a popular destination for nearshore manufacturing. This is due to the availability of cost-effective labor and its strategic location. The country became the world’s 12th largest economy in 2024, up from 15th in 2018.

The ambitious fiscal stimulus that was focused on sustainable transition and energy sovereignty, outlined in the Mexican government’s 2025-30 National Development Plan, was a boon for scrap-intensive industrial sectors.

USMCA and trade tariff impacts on Mexico automotive nearshoring

The Mexican Automotive Industry Association believes that Mexico will become the fifth-largest global vehicle producer by the end of 2025.

It is estimated that Mexico produced 4 million vehicles in 2024, up by 5.56% from the volume in 2023. The country is the fourth-largest global exporter of vehicles. This increase in production supports Mexico’s automotive nearshoring initiatives

Mexico has attracted attention from Chinese-owned makers of electric vehicles (EVs) including BYD and MG Motor. These producers seek to gain advantage from trade agreements and Mexico’s proximity to the US market when choosing offshore manufacturing locations.

Announcements in the week ended April 25 from automakers Hyundai and GM – that they intend to retain a production presence in the region – are a positive sign. There was also a degree of backtracking on the tariffs to be imposed on goods that comply with the USMCA trade agreement – between the US, Mexico, and Canada. This is amid continuing global trade disputes.

While there has been uncertainty regarding fast-moving tariff impositions since April 2025, the USMCA-compliant nature of Mexican automotive exports to the US suggests no reduction in interest.

Mexico is exempt from the 25% automotive tariffs under the USMCA, provided that the goods meet the USMCA rules of origin. This exemption helps to minimize the disruption to the automotive industry. It supports the integrated supply chains between the three countries, crucial for Mexico automotive nearshoring.

EV production and the role of aluminium in Mexico automotive nearshoring

Weight reduction in the production of new vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and electric vehicles is facilitating demand for non-ferrous scrap and alloys, specifically aluminium.

As much as 90% of aluminium can be recycled, making it one of the most sustainable materials used in the automotive industry.

New vehicle models typically make more use of aluminium to reduce weight and improve fuel efficiency. This is a positive, with nearshoring investment in the Mexican automotive sector being an increasingly prevalent theme. It drives automotive companies toward Mexico.

Automotive-grade aluminium alloys weigh around 2.7 kg per litre of volume, compared with steel’s 7.8 kg per litre. This significantly reduces vehicle weight. The weight reduction leads to better fuel economy and performance. Although aluminium is more expensive than steel, the overall cost can be offset by other savings.

The amount of secondary aluminium alloy ingot production in Mexico is substantial, with production in the range of 40,000-45,000 tonnes per month.

The combined requirement for aluminium extrusion and sheet metal for EVs worldwide is projected to be almost 10 million tonnes per year by 2030.

Aluminium scrap market dynamics and nearshoring opportunities

  • High-quality scrap such as clean wheels and cast aluminium, is used for critical components such as engine blocks and cylinder heads. Material integrity is essential for these parts.
  • Lower-quality scrap such as old sheet can be used for non-critical parts or as a supplement in alloy production. This use reduces costs without compromising performance.
  • Aluminium alloys are used significantly in panels used to produce car chassis, which reduces weight. This illustrates one of the advantages in automotive nearshoring projects in Mexico, where material efficiency is a priority.

Domestic pricing challenges amid nearshoring growth

Many Mexican domestic scrap market participants currently benchmark non-ferrous secondary pricing from London Metal Exchange and COMEX cash-settled aluminium and copper prices.

Recent spread volatility for exchange-traded copper and aluminium, and the persistent arbitrage between the LME and COMEX, is exacerbating pricing for market participants in the region.

This market volatility is due in large part to global tariff uncertainty, with China being the main target of US tariff policy at the moment.

Copper market participants continue to operate under exchange-based volatility and the current US Section 232 investigation into the national security implications of copper imports into the US. This investigation was scheduled to be concluded in November.

Fastmarkets has launched a raft of physical price assessments to which Mexican domestic scrap market participants can contribute. This can offset to a degree the reliance on exchange-based benchmarking for scrap pricing.

Non-reporting of a legal 16% VAT requirement has also led to price distortion for alloys and finished products. Because of this, our methodology has a strict requirement that VAT be included.

US Midwest A380 alloy price references are reported to be an increasingly unreliable benchmark for Mexican pricing. This makes alternatives necessary for those involved in Mexico automotive nearshoring efforts.

Access the latest US scrap trends outlook

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