Pilbara Minerals lowers FY25 production guidance as Ngungaju plant placed on care and maintenance

Australian lithium producer Pilbara Minerals will be placing its Ngungaju plant on care and maintenance from December 2024, the company announced on Tuesday October 29

The Ngungaju plant, located in Western Australia, produces spodumene concentrate and was acquired by Pilbara Minerals in 2021 from Altura Lithium.

The plant has a nameplate capacity of 180,000-200,000 tonnes per year of spodumene concentrate but has a lower capacity and operates at higher cost than the company’s Pilgan plant, which also produces spodumene concentrate.

The company will therefore focus solely on production from the Pilgan plant, a move which the company estimates will improve cashflow by A$200 million ($131.2 million).

“While the Ngungaju plant has undergone significant upgrades since it was acquired from Altura Mining, it does not match the scale or processing capability of the Pilgan plant,” Pilbara Minerals said.

The placing of the Ngungaju plant on care and maintenance will reduce the company’s forecast production of spodumene concentrate in fiscal year 2025 though, by around 100,000 tonnes.

The company reports an estimated production guidance of 700,000-740,000 tonnes in 2025, compared to the previous guidance of 800,000-840,000 tonnes.

Supply glut has pressured lithium prices lower

Following a slowing in global demand for lithium relative to the rate of production increases, the lithium market has experienced significant oversupply, which has weighed on spot prices.

Since reaching their peaks in 2022, prices for lithium products, including battery grade lithium salts and spodumene, have largely returned to multi-year lows.

Fastmarkets most recently assessed the spodumene min 6% Li2O, spot price, cif China at $730-770 per tonne on Wednesday, unchanged from the previous day, but down by 21% since the beginning of 2024.

Fastmarkets research currently forecasts that the global lithium market is set to record a surplus of 137,500 tonnes in 2024 on an lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) basis, following a 175,700-tonne LCE surplus in 2023.

In fact, the lithium market is currently set to experience surpluses until 2027.

This surplus is causing concern among some market participants about the direction of future lithium prices.

“I don’t think we see any significant change in price fundamentals without cuts on the supply side,” a trader told Fastmarkets.

This is a view echoed by Pilbara in their quarterly reports statement.

“Consistent with market commentary, further market rebalancing, through either increased demand or supply curtailments, is required to catalyze a near-term price improvement,” the company said.

There is historical precedent for the need for production cuts to support price recovery. During the price downturn in lithium between 2018 and 2020, there were a series of production cuts, particularly on the spodumene side of the market.

In that period, there were curtailments at Bald Hill and Wodgina mines, as well as production reductions at Pilgangoora and Mt Cattlin mines. The closure of Altura in October 2020, which included the Ngungaju project, was the final cutback before prices began to recover in 2021.

“With the market oversupplied production cuts are needed, so Pilbara’s decision to idle the Ngungaju plant is an important development,” William Adams, Fastmarkets head of base metal and battery raw materials research, said.

“The last time the Ngungaju plant closed, when Altura Mining went into administration in October 2020, it signaled the bottom of the bear market – unfortunately it is unlikely to have the same impact this time round, as more cutbacks are going to be needed to rebalance the market,” Adams said.

Want to know more? Read Fastmarkets’ spodumene FAQs here.

What to read next
Fastmarkets invited feedback from the industry on the pricing methodology for its International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)-audited non-ferrous metals, via an open consultation process between October 8 and November 7, 2024. This consultation was done as part of our published annual methodology review process.
It was already getting more difficult to source nickel qualified as compliant to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Under a future Donald Trump administration, it’s likely to get harder still, in the short-term at least.
India should invest to avoid its dependance on imports for almost 100% of its cobalt, lithium and nickel requirements, according to a report by the think tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). But slow government action and a focus on short-term costs keep India reliant on imported critical minerals, sources told Fastmarkets.
Li-Cycle has successfully closed on an upsized loan from the US Department of Energy (DOE) to support the development of the its Rochester Hub Project, the company announced alongside its third-quarter earnings report on Thursday November 7.
Read Fastmarkets' monthly battery raw materials market update for November 2024, focusing on raw materials including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite and more
Donald Trump’s second term as US president is not likely to have too much of an impact on China’s electric vehicle (EV) and new energy markets, despite broader concerns over potential tariff hikes which might bring challenges to both China and the US, sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday November 7.