Russian attacks disrupt Ukrainian grain trade as shipowners shun Black Sea ports

Traders said the market would likely need another “one or two days” before the full implications of the latest attacks become clear. But concerns have already emerged over shipment delays and vessels refusing to load at Ukrainian ports because of heightened security risks. Several sources said the current escalation could be comparable in severity to the early stages of the war.

Sources said that several major agricultural companies have temporarily suspended purchases of grain on a CPT Ukrainian port basis following the latest wave of attacks.

Market participants also reported that several bulk carriers were damaged during overnight strikes, prompting shipowners to reassess the risks of operating in Ukrainian waters.

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea port infrastructure intensified over July 10-15, with strikes reported on July 10-11, July 11-12 and in the following days, damaging grain handling facilities, storage infrastructure and port assets and increasing concerns over export delays and vessel availability.

“Most owners, around 90%, have declined all trades from Ukraine due to unforeseen war-risk circumstances,” a Ukraine-based source told Fastmarkets.

Sources said that Italian grain buyers have also reported receiving notifications from Ukrainian suppliers warning that grain purchases had been suspended because vessels were “massively refusing” to call at Ukrainian ports following the attacks.

Uncertainty around the level of disruption

According to the message circulated among buyers, existing contracts would be honored, although delivery delays are expected because of damage to port infrastructure, congestion and limited storage capacity.

“This escalation will have its impact, likely primarily for grains and rapeseed as we are in harvest time. Freight is also expected to become more expensive if ships continue to call at ports,” a second Ukraine-based source said.

“Shipowners refuse to go to Ukrainian ports. We hear this more and more,” a third Ukraine-based market participant said, adding that many owners were attempting to avoid previously agreed fixtures amid heightened security concerns.

Sources said it remains unclear whether the current disruption will prove temporary or lead to a prolonged withdrawal of vessel owners from Ukrainian trade routes.

But some market participants expect grain flows to increasingly shift toward Romanian export channels through Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB), where logistical risks remain lower.

“They will focus their attention on CVB probably,” a fourth source said. “Everything is possible for the right price, but shipowners are refusing to go for now.”

Sources added that exporters could also reroute part of the grain flow through Romania’s Constanta port and the Danube, as they did during periods of intensified attacks in 2022-2024. But those routes cannot accommodate Ukraine’s full export volumes, meaning prolonged disruption at Black Sea ports would create logistical bottlenecks and increase export costs.

Sources added that grain sold on a CIF basis could potentially be loaded through alternative ports outside Ukraine if vessel availability at Ukrainian terminals remains constrained.

A Black Sea-based trader said there was a “high chance” that production facilities, and not only export terminals, could become targets if the security situation continues to deteriorate. The trader noted that major trading companies operating in Ukraine had already reported sustained and severe damage to grain and vegetable oil storage and handling facilities.

The latest disruption follows repeated Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure in recent days. Earlier this week, Ukraine’s largest grain exporter, Kernel, suspended operations at its Chornomorsk export terminal after missile and drone attacks caused extensive damage to grain handling equipment, storage facilities and power infrastructure. The company reported the loss of around 45,000 tonnes of wheat and 9,000 tonnes of sunflower oil, raising further concerns over Ukraine’s export capacity during the early stages of the 2026/2027 marketing season.

Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.