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Russian grain exports are rising while production is falling, and on October 2, the Russian Union of Grain Exporters (Rusgrain Union) said it would ask the Ministry of Agriculture to change the grain export quota distribution for the second half of the marketing year.
In the past week, there has been market talk about potential restrictions to slow down Russian grain exports, Fastmarkets heard.
These restrictions could include changes to the quota itself and its distribution; a minimum export price, potentially at $250 per tonne; a significant increase in export taxes; or other unofficial measures like delaying the release of mandatory phytosanitary documentation, sources said.
A delay in releasing phytosanitary documentation was already an issue for a few exporting companies over the past week, Fastmarkets heard.
“The Ministry of Agriculture is sending a signal to slow down ‘spot/cheap’ sellers who dump the market,” a trader told Fastmarkets.
As a result, most sellers of Russian wheat disappeared from the market in the second half of the trading day on Wednesday, sources said.
“The question for [the government] is how to maximize the money flow from exporters without risking exports, and at the same time, how to protect the country in case of a bad crop in 2025,” a second trader said.
Wheat exports during July-September were almost in line with the previous year at 14.73 million tonnes, according to local analytical agency Rusagrotrans.
And, in the first week of October, around 1.4 million tonnes of wheat were loaded from Black Sea ports, and at least 1 million tonnes were under loading, resulting in a total of 17.1 million tonnes so far in the 2024/25 marketing year, or up to 40% of the export potential.
The export potential for 2024/25 is significantly lower amid a crop decline of 6 million-10 million tonnes compared with the previous marketing year, while carryover stocks were also lower.
The latest estimates for Russian wheat exports in 2024/25 stand at 41 million-48 million tonnes; the highest one is the USDA’s, which sources consider too high.
In addition, the weather remains mostly dry in Russia, which can have a negative effect on the winter crop size in 2025.