SAF to account for 12% global aviation energy demand by 2050, said DNV

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will start to see increased uptake from the 2030s and will account for up to 12% of world aviation energy demand by 2050, according to the 2024 Energy Transition Outlook published by Norwegian classification organization DNV on Wednesday October 9

By mid-century, aviation will take the biggest share of bioenergy for transport – estimated at 48% – followed by the maritime industry, which will claim 32%, DNV said.

Aviation’s higher share is due to decarbonization policies and “consumer-push” that has led many airlines to set tough targets for switching to SAF, according to the report.

This has already been felt by the market, where SAF production doubled between 2022 and 2023 and is expected to more than double again between 2023 and 2024, “albeit form a very low starting volume,” DNV said.

There is still a long way to go for the sector to fully decarbonize, despite various policies around the world implemented to aid the process.

Mechanisms like the European Commission’s RefuelEU Aviation Initiative, which aims to increase the uptake of SAF as part of the wider EU Green Deal, “play a critical role in the adoption of SAF and creating a viable customer base for the production/consumption of hydrogen-based fuels,” DNV said.

Fastmarkets’ senior analyst, Tore Alden, answers six key questions on the challenges faced by the sustainable aviation fuel industry. Watch the full interview here.

SAF and hydrogen

While the aviation industry is exploring the use of hydrogen as an additional alternative, the low energy density of the greener fuel requires new aircraft designs and infrastructure, despite being labeled as “near emission-free transport”.

“This will limit its adoption to 4% of the energy mix by 2050,” DNV said, adding that due to more widespread availability, “first-mover advantage” and less associated regulatory barriers to being certified as renewable fuels, bio-based SAF will reach a 22% share by mid-century.

SAF in the form of e-fuels based on hydrogen will meanwhile gain traction in the 2040s, the report said, and will “dominate” over pure hydrogen in the aviation sector due to their versatility to reach a 12% share by 2050.

Overall, region-specific pushes from both businesses and from individuals “that are willing to pay for SAF” will enable “a gradual increase in uptake of uncompetitive (on cost) aviation fuels such as hydrogen and SAFs.”

Meanwhile, efforts made by larger firms and corporations which are willing to invest in SAF to reduce their Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions “are still in their nascent stage,” DNV noted, as well as “voluntary.”

View our SAF prices, forecasts and more

What to read next
UK-based transport fuels supplier Greenergy announced on Thursday July 10 that it will begin the consultation process to cease production at its biodiesel plant in Immingham, in the northeast of the country, in the latest blow to the UK's renewable fuel sector.
Vegoils futures traded broadly in positive territory on Wednesday July 1. In Asia, crude palm oil (CPO) futures rose steadily on higher related vegoils, while soyoil futures rallied on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange amid a drop in US stocks and as US biofuels developments were in focus.
The assessments will reflect the cost of production of a tonne of sustainable aviation fuel in the Netherlands, utilizing hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA) technology with used cooking oil as its feedstock. SAF price inputs include Fastmarkets’ AG-UCO-0011 Used cooking oil, ISCC, ddp Northwest Europe, €/tonne, hydrogen Netherland steam methane reforming estimate and fixed costs. SAF […]
Discover the key insights, forecasts, and industry dynamics shaping the future of aviation fuel and learn how these mandates will impact the global landscape.
The Netherlands has released an update to its current biofuels mandate ahead of the full implementation of the third iteration of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) in the form of a draft proposal submitted to the Dutch Government on Friday June 20.
Used Cooking Oil (UCO) has become a vital feedstock for biofuels, particularly Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), but surging demand, globalized supply chains, and geopolitical risks highlight the need for strategic planning to address supply gaps and sustain production.