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Canadian miner Teck Resources again lowered its copper output target this year. It trimmed its forecasts up to 2028 as it continues to face challenges in raising production at a key mine in Chile, the company said in a statement on Wednesday October 8. Teck is scaling down its copper growth ambitions at a time when the world’s top producers, including Freeport McMoRan, Codelco and Ivanhoe Mines, are grappling with geological challenges at some of their key mines. This is curbing output – a sign that future supply outlook for the red metal will continue to deteriorate.
Teck said copper output this year is expected to be 415,000-465,000 tonnes. This is revised from an earlier plan to produce 470,000-525,000 tonnes. Teck initially targeted raising output to 490,000-565,000 tonnes this year from 446,000 tonnes in 2024.
The Canadian miner expects copper output at 455,000-530,000 tonnes in 2026 against an earlier target of 550,000-620,000 tonnes. In 2028, Teck expects copper output at 435,000-510,000 tonnes, lower than an earlier forecast of 475,000-545,000 tonnes.
Teck’s output of zinc concentrates is also expected to slump to 275,000-325,000 tonnes in 2028 from 525,000-575,000 tonnes this year.
The miner has struggled to ramp up output at Quebrada Blanca (QB), a giant mine in northern Chile. This mine was key to its overall copper growth outlook. Production at the QB mine has been hamstrung by the “pace of development” of a much bigger tailings facility, Teck said on Wednesday
The QB mine could meet its output target if the capacity of the processing plant is not constrained by the tailings facility, the company said. Still, the mine has constantly missed targets.
Teck now forecasts the QB mine will produce 170,000-190,000 tonnes of copper this year. This is down from an earlier estimate of 210,000-230,000 tonnes. Next year, copper output is expected at 200,000-235,000 tonnes, scaled down from an earlier plan to produce 280,000-310,000 tonnes. The challenges weigh on targets up to 2028, Teck said.
The new 2026 target is a “bigger surprise”, Fastmarkets analyst Andy Cole said. “That’s a reduction of 73,000 tonnes from next year’s concentrates market,” Cole said. “It’s not [the same as] Grasberg’s minus 270,000 tonnes [of copper], but it’s another significant reduction.”
The fortunes of the QB mine are now intertwined with those of the adjacent Collahuasi mine, which is owned by Anglo American and Glencore. Teck and Anglo agreed to merge their assets. This is likely to help the companies cut costs and boost copper production, becoming the world’s fifth-largest supplier.
Miners including Anglo and Glencore are also struggling to raise output. This is owing to declining ore grades and inadequate water supplies, especially in Latin America.
Freeport’s halt in production at its Grasberg operation, the world’s second-largest copper mine, could raise the copper supply deficit by 270,000 tonnes, according to BofA Securities analyst Jason Fairclough.
Mining companies’ challenges and the missing of output targets is reflected in the tightening supply of copper concentrates.
Fastmarkets assessed the copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific – the mid-point between smelter and trader buying levels – at $(65.40) per tonne on Friday October 3. This was down by $2 per tonne from $(63.40) per tonne on September 26, the deepest level since the index stood at $(65.80) per tonne on July 4.
“This year’s mines supply is likely to come in below virtually every forecast made over the past 15 years,” Fairclough said. He added that production challenges “are now being exacerbated by unexpected supply disruptions”.
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