Tungsten 2026: Geopolitics sets global tone

The global tungsten market in 2026 is marked by extreme volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and resource nationalism, especially between China and the US. These dynamics have caused significant supply disruptions and price surges across tungsten products.

The global tungsten market has entered 2026 in a state of extreme volatility, caught up in a global geopolitical storm, with international trade disputes, protectionist policies and resource nationalism at its heart. 

For example, the seaborne ammonium paratungstate (APT) market has faced exceptional supply tightness over the last year and beyond, seeing unprecedented spikes. 

China’s export controls trigger tungsten supply shock

This was brought on by the implementation of export controls on various tungsten products coming from China, which followed a US announcement that an executive order had been signed implementing tariffs on a range of imports from China.  

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced on February 4 last year that the export controls would be applied with immediate effect to certain forms of tungsten, including APT, as well as various other commodities. 

According to the MOFCOM announcement, “export operators who wish to export the [named] items shall apply for a license from the State Council’s commerce department in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Export Control Law of the People’s Republic of China and the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Export Control of Dual-Use Items.” 

In a market heavily reliant on Chinese supply but equally accustomed to a certain level of inertia, rarely seeing major price moves, the effect on the international market was not immediate, but it was severe. Supply all but ground to a halt and the need to secure tungsten units was cast into sharp relief. 

As the song has it, you don’t know what you’ve got ‘til it’s gone. 

Geopolitics and strategic stockpiling 

Tungsten concentrates and ferrotungsten prices have also seen major rises globally, partly as part of a ripple effect following the surge in APT prices but also brought on by strengthening demand especially in aerospace and defence in the case of ferro-tungsten.  

What began as a reaction to a specific policy decision in 2025 has evolved into a global scramble to secure supply, with the US in particular issuing a slew of policy proposals aimed at shoring up its critical mineral supply.  

For example, the country has recently announced Project Vault, its $12 billion stockpiling initiative for critical minerals and rare earths, as well as proposals such as price floors and a preferential critical minerals trade bloc, all with implications for tungsten. 

For readers less familiar with commodity markets, this cycle is notable because tungsten pricing, supply and demand are all increasingly being shaped by geopolitics, export regimes and strategic stockpiling behaviour. 

APT sees global upswing 

This year alone, Fastmarkets’ price assessments for tungsten APT 88.5% WO3 min cif Rotterdam and Baltimore duty-free have seen huge rises, from the $900-940 per mtu WO3 in January, to $1,650–1,900 per mtu WO3 by mid-February. Even during the traditionally slower Lunar New Year period, market movement continued, with the seaborne APT price as the need to secure units showed little sign of fading.  

These moves reflect the structural reality at the heart of the tungsten market: China controls more than three-quarters of global supply, and the changes to its export policies contributed directly to the supply tightness seen in 2025 and continuing into 2026.  

Concentrate markets face similar volatility 

Tungsten concentrate prices in China were already on an upward trajectory before the export controls, being underpinned by reduced mining quotas, falling ore grades and rising demand. As a key raw material in APT production, rising concentrate prices have also signalled rising input costs, and shortages in concentrates can also contribute to APT supply tightness. 

Sources told Fastmarkets that these issues have also begun filtering through to downstream markets, such as tungsten carbide and tungsten powders, with reports indicating that suppliers could be months behind on deliveries.  

In the global market, the desire to secure units has become so pronounced that downstream players have reportedly begun looking further upstream, even to mines, with a view to buying the ore and processing it themselves or finding someone who can. 

Mining projects have started to emerge at an accelerated pace around the world, from Uzbekistan to the US to the UK. There is a global race to access output, driven by potential support from the US government. The US aims to onshore, reshore and friend-shore as much supply as possible. However, long lead times remain a challenge, with new projects taking up to a decade or more from discovery to production.  

Ferrotungsten rises gradually 

Ferrotungsten has experienced something of a ripple effect. This is driven by the skyrocketing price of concentrate to some extent, as well as reports of supply tightness, leading to a slower burn but a similarly vertiginous rise in prices. Fastmarkets’ price assessment for ferro-tungsten basis 75% W, in-whs dup Rotterdam has hit $200-210 per kg W, compared with $45-46 per kg W a year ago. 

In global markets, ferrotungsten’s comparatively slower rise could reflect its more diversified downstream demand profile, as well as the fact that it has not been directly affected by export controls. That being said, it has also been a beneficiary of the upswing in global interest in tungsten products in general. 

Policy drives pricing 

One of the defining characteristics of this tungsten cycle is the degree to which international policy – especially from China and the US – is reshaping the global supply landscape. These measures are not temporary changes but reflect a clear shift towards protectionism on both sides. 

This has placed tungsten firmly within the broader framework of supply chain realignment, strategic minerals legislation and North American and European efforts to establish alternative sources of supply. Buyers across aerospace, defence, energy and tooling continue to express concern about the long-term reliability of tungsten flows and are actively seeking diversification away from China. 

Outlook: Structural tightness to remain 

Given depleted inventories, restricted Chinese exports and limited near-term new supply, this volatility is widely expected to persist throughout 2026. Substitution remains nearly impossible for most industrial uses, and recycling cannot scale sufficiently in the short term. New mine developments in Europe, the US and Asia remain years away from entering supply chains. 

In this environment, tungsten continues to behave like a strategic resource rather than a conventional industrial metal – its pricing increasingly influenced by policy decisions, strategic stockpiling and geopolitical alignment. 

Complete our short survey on tungsten market sentiment and receive a copy of the results. You can also contact our team directly on ores_alloys@fastmarkets.com

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