UCO prices reach two-year high in 2024, increases to continue in 2025 amid demand

Global used cooking oil (UCO) prices were highly volatile throughout 2024 amid market uncertainty, trade flow and policy changes, with market sources expecting the prices to increase further in 2025, pushed up by higher demand and increased biofuel production obligations

Fastmarkets’ UCO CIF Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp (ARA) assessment reached a 2024 high of $1,070 per tonne in December, a nearly two-year high, marking a 21% increase from its 2024 low of $885 per tonne in March. 

Fastmarkets’ UCO DDP North-West Europe (NWE) price for the inland market reached €1,175 ($1,222) per tonne in December, a two-year high, up by 28% from its 2024 low of €920 per tonne assessed in January.

“So many factors pushed UCO up and down in price this year; firm demand and high vegetable oil prices kept prices at high levels at the end of the year,” a European source told Fastmarkets.

UCO prices started to uptrend in May amid expectations that the European Commission (EC) would announce preliminary anti-dumping measures against Chinese biodiesel as a result of an investigation launched in December 2023. 

Sources anticipated European UCO demand to increase in order to cover biodiesel supply shortages from China, which mostly comes in the form of used cooking oil methyl ester (UCOME). 

Price dipped in September to €940 per tonne DDP NWE, close to a 2024 low, amid lower trading and a general downward movement in the vegetable oil complex.

“Anti-dumping measures did not cause as much damage to UCO prices as some people expected and after a little bit of panic buying prices stabilized,” a source said.

On November 15, the Chinese government announced it would be cancelling a 13% export tax rebate for UCO exports effective December 1, causing a price spike of around 25% depending on quality specification.

After trading at $850-870 per tonne on an FOB China basis, offers for bulk shipments reached $1,000-1,050 per tonne for UCOME specification UCO, while UCO for hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production was reportedly offered as high as $1,100 per tonne FOB.

The price increase encouraged European importers to turn to alternative origins, sourcing biofuel feedstock from South America, Middle East and North Africa at more competitive levels, but volumes remained insufficient to fully cover demand.

Expensive freight rates for both container-sized and bulk shipments also added to a disadvantage for Chinese UCO in the European market; sources expect freight to stabilize in January 2025.

European UCO prices trended upward in November-December amid consistent demand and low availability as well as firm vegetable oil prices, particularly for European rapeseed oil and crude palm oil delivered from Asia. 

2025

Sources expect global UCO prices to continue moving up in the first quarter of 2025, supported by demand and general feedstock availability.

UCO demand is likely to grow in Europe with sustainable fuel production mandates increasing in 2025 and a 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production obligation being introduced.

Some European countries are to decrease or ban virgin vegetable oils usage in biofuel production in 2025, adding to waste feedstock demand such as UCO.

Palm oil availability for exports into Europe is also expected to decrease as Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, is to revise its biodiesel blending mandate up to 40% in January from the current 35% adding to the country’s local consumption.

The country’s palm export duties and production concerns also contribute to lower export expectations.

What to read next
As we frequently remind our readers, the future is uncertain, and market conditions can change rapidly, particularly in light of ongoing tariff discussions. Currently, the US has delayed imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico by one month. For now, we are assuming those tariffs will not take effect – and that China’s tariffs will. With […]
Access our expert lumber predictions for 2025, including insights into significant movements in the housing market.
This guide explores current price trends, breaks down the key copper scrap grades and provides a global outlook for 2025.
The photovoltaic (PV) solar power industry is continuing to evolve, but demand for gallium as a doping element in silicon-based PV cells is gradually declining, market participants told Fastmarkets early in 2025.
Bearishness in China’s photovoltaic (PV) industry is expected to remain in 2025 amid overcapacity, market participants widely agree.
US Census Bureau data released on Wednesday, February 5 shows calendar year 2024 imports were 18% below import totals in the same period of 2023, while calendar year 2024 exports were 31% below comparative 2023 exports. Biodiesel imports experienced quarter-on-quarter declines in each quarter during 2024. Imports were expected to fall as the market began […]