What is the outlook for the US scrap market?
- The US scrap trend indicator for August is bullish with a score of 52.1
- +0.4% change in scrap prices is estimated for next month
- Sellers are slightly more optimistic at 59.9, followed by the brokers at 50.0 and the buyers at 46.4
- Inventory levels are near equilibrium at 49.8, suggesting neither a surplus nor a deficit compared to long-term
Read on for a summary of the results of our US ferrous scrap market survey for August or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
US scrap market participants agree on a stable outlook
The ferrous scrap market exhibited modest activity in August 2024, with the trend indicator slightly above neutral at 52.1, suggesting a stable outlook. Actual scrap prices showed a minimal increase of 0.6%, in line also with the expected 0.4% month-on-month growth for next month.
High consensus among market participants
This stability is reflected across the market sides, with sellers being slightly more optimistic (trend indicator at 59.9) compared to buyers (46.4) and brokers (50.0).
The consensus among market participants is high, with a value of 63%, indicating agreement on market direction.
Scrap supply is tight. Mills are at the bottom regarding production costs.
Survey participant
Stability amid low demand and tight supply
The inventory levels are near equilibrium at 49.8, suggesting neither a surplus nor a deficit compared to long-term. The primary market driver for August is not demand or supply, but a balanced supply-demand scenario without significant disruptions. Some respondents suggested that despite low demand, particularly from domestic mills, export markets are supporting prices and preventing a downturn.
The overall sentiment suggests that there are no immediate signs of significant price movements. This cautious optimism is underpinned by concerns over the global economic environment and potential external disruptions, which could impact future market dynamics.
