US scrap trends outlook: December 2024

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our December survey

What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?

  • The December US ferrous scrap market trend indicator turns mildly bearish at 45.4
  • The three-month trend indicator reflects an optimistic outlook for early 2025
  • Both buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2
  • Demand remains low and keeps prices down, but the market is poised for changes ahead

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for December or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

US scrap market steadies amidst lower demand for December 2024

The December scrap market reflects a stable phase, with a mild bearish trend indicator of 45.4. However, optimism is building for early 2025, as the 3-month trend indicator shows positive momentum, and the 6-month trend indicator has reached its highest level in 18 months. Accordingly, the December scrap price change is forecasted at +0.8%. 

Tariffs and foreign trade new conditions are influencing the market.

Survey participant

Cautious outlook and supply constraints

Consensus around the market direction remains measured. Buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook, with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, respectively, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2, although still below the neutral threshold of 50. Inventories across US scrap mills stand at 47.7, below the standard average of 50, indicating supply constraints.

Demand remains low, but the market is poised for changes ahead

Despite the flat movement expected for December, the higher forward-looking indicators suggest participants are preparing for potential shifts. Lower demand remains a key driver keeping prices subdued, but the market is poised for significant changes as 2025 unfolds.

What to read next
The sharp rise in demand for lithium is outpacing the growth of an independent US supply chain, Ian Rodger, chief executive officer of lithium development company US Elemental, told Fastmarkets in an exclusive interview on Wednesday June 3.
The Trump administration has concluded its investigation against Brazil under Section 301, with the country’s Trade Representative Jamieson Greer proposing a 25% tariff on the South American country’s imports but putting forth a list of exempted items.
A United Auto Workers (UAW) strike at the American Axle factory in Three Rivers, Michigan, that began on Monday June 1 could lead to reduced demand for automotive steel if not resolved quickly, but analysts disagree on whether it will ultimately have a significant impact.
Half a million tonnes of copper is sitting in US warehouses, and the traders who put it there are starting to wonder whether they’ve built a hedge, or a trap.
The eight assessments will cover the United States for tissue jumbo/parent rolls made from wood pulp and recycled pulp for both retail and away-from-home markets. The new prices will replace the price estimates currently published in Fastmarkets’ US Tissue Monthly Data report and will be a part of the Fastmarkets tissue package. The new prices will […]
A surplus in bleached softwood kraft (BSK) pulp has driven US prices down by $20 per tonne, while bleached hardwood kraft (BHK) prices rose by $50 per tonne.