What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?
- The January US ferrous scrap market trend indicator turns slightly bullish at 57.6
- The three-month trend indicator to March continues to reflect a bullish outlook at 64.9
- Buyers, brokers and sellers show restrained optimism, with trend indicators at 58.8, 56.3 and 57.8
- Stakeholders appear to be optimistic, yet cautious, as we transition into 2025
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for January or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
Positive expectations for the January 2025 ferrous scrap market
The trend indicator for January 2025 edged up to 57.6, indicating a bullish sentiment for scrap prices. This is equivalent to an expected scrap price change of +1.5% month-over-month.
The consensus remains on this expectation is average at 58%, signalling a wide consensus.
There’s market stagnation due to the new administration in the US later in January 2025
Survey participant
All market sides appear moderately aligned
By market sides, the trend indicator reveals moderate alignment, with buyers at 58.8, brokers at 56.3 and sellers at 57.8. These figures suggest a restrained optimism across participants as the market moves into the new year. Inventories remain near average at 52.2, reflecting no significant stockpiling or depletion.
“All unchanged” was the most cited market driver this month, highlighting a lack of a dominant influencing factor. This steadiness may be attributed to a seasonal lull and the industry’s hesitation ahead of the new administration’s policies.
The market is poised for marginal growth in early 2025
Although the market seems poised for marginal growth, challenges such as political uncertainty and logistical constraints in the winter months could weigh on progress. For now, stakeholders appear to be navigating cautiously to positivity as the industry transitions into 2025.
