US scrap trends outlook: January 2025

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our January survey

What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?

  • The January US ferrous scrap market trend indicator turns slightly bullish at 57.6
  • The three-month trend indicator to March continues to reflect a bullish outlook at 64.9
  • Buyers, brokers and sellers show restrained optimism, with trend indicators at 58.8, 56.3 and 57.8
  • Stakeholders appear to be optimistic, yet cautious, as we transition into 2025

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for January or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

Positive expectations for the January 2025 ferrous scrap market

The trend indicator for January 2025 edged up to 57.6, indicating a bullish sentiment for scrap prices. This is equivalent to an expected scrap price change of +1.5% month-over-month.

The consensus remains on this expectation is average at 58%, signalling a wide consensus.

There’s market stagnation due to the new administration in the US later in January 2025

Survey participant

All market sides appear moderately aligned

By market sides, the trend indicator reveals moderate alignment, with buyers at 58.8, brokers at 56.3 and sellers at 57.8. These figures suggest a restrained optimism across participants as the market moves into the new year. Inventories remain near average at 52.2, reflecting no significant stockpiling or depletion.

“All unchanged” was the most cited market driver this month, highlighting a lack of a dominant influencing factor. This steadiness may be attributed to a seasonal lull and the industry’s hesitation ahead of the new administration’s policies.

The market is poised for marginal growth in early 2025

Although the market seems poised for marginal growth, challenges such as political uncertainty and logistical constraints in the winter months could weigh on progress. For now, stakeholders appear to be navigating cautiously to positivity as the industry transitions into 2025.

What to read next
Fastmarkets launched two new aluminium scrap prices on Thursday, April 9, adding to Fastmarkets’ suite of recycled non-ferrous metals price assessments. The launch will elevate and expand Fastmarkets’ aluminium scrap coverage by including the following grades: Section 232 tariffs and the resulting high aluminium premiums have led to increased costs and rising interest in recycled […]
Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our April survey.
Fastmarkets is extending the consultation period for the methodology of several of its black mass payables indicators and prices, and is also proposing changes to the names of CIF South Korea and EWX Europe black mass prices.
Fastmarkets proposes to launch fortnightly bismuth and indium prices on a DDP US basis on Friday May 1. Market participants have expressed support for localized US pricing in response to Section 301 tariffs, export controls and increased US government funding to support domestic and allied supply chains. These assessments would complement Fastmarkets’ existing benchmarks in […]
See how shrinking supply and rising freight rates push low-grade lumber prices higher, driving up Gulf Coast pallet costs for chemical industry buyers. Find out more.
The additional kilogram-based prices, to be calculated from existing pound-based assessments, are intended to improve clarity and align the assessments more closely with prevailing commercial practices in Mexico’s non-ferrous scrap markets. Market participants commonly reference kilogram-based prices in submissions, transactions and negotiations, particularly in key regions such as Monterrey and Bajío. Publishing complementary peso per […]