US Scrap Trends Outlook: May

North American ferrous scrap prices are due a further downward correction in May following drops incurred on cut grades and shredded scrap in April; primes trended sideways over the period

Outlook for steel scrap price in May

The bearish sentiment pushed the Trend Indicator into negative territory for May. The Outlook’s prediction model suggests that steel scrap prices have the potential to fall even further in May.

Well over half of respondents to the survey expect steel scrap prices to trend lower, while 29% forecast that prices would remain sideways. Half of respondents said weaker demand would be the main driver, while 20% pointed to unchanged market conditions.

Demand drivers for steel scrap prices

Shredded scrap prices are expected to fall the most sharply amid strong supply flows. The outlook for prime grades remains unclear, with demand for No1 busheling reportedly still strong in some regions.

The overall trend consensus edged higher — to 59% — compared with 57% in April, suggesting that confidence in the market’s direction has improved. The three-month Indicator was in bearish territory, and the six-month Indicator was also negative. Learn more.

Make sense of the US steel scrap market and track the critical indicators impacting steel scrap price movements in our May outlook.

What to read next
Why vacillating tariff decisions will lead to price surges, but the fundamentals will prevail in the US steel market
Fastmarkets has corrected its MB-IRO-0188 - Iron ore 67.5% Fe pellet feed cfr Qingdao and MB-IRO-0013 - Iron ore 65% Fe concentrate cfr Qingdao indices, which were published incorrectly on Wednesday March 19 due to a technical calculation error.
Forecasting is not an absolute exact science, but it provides a general expectation of future growth scenarios based on assumptions. Accessing two, five and 15-year forecasts by region and grade enables parties to plan around market changes. At Fastmarkets, our macroeconomic forecasts serve as a foundation for various forestry product forecasts, such as pulp, packaging, […]
The adjustment, which follows a consultation which ended on Tuesday March 18, will enable Fastmarkets to track a broader range of data by incorporating major ports, including Hay Point Coal Terminal, Abbot Point Coal Terminal, Gladstone Port and Port Kembla, alongside the current Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal. To ensure consistency of the assessments, normalization of ports […]
The name of the index will be modified to steel scrap, sheared HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), index, domestic, delivered UAE. This will clarify that the index covers sheared HMS 1&2 and not unprocessed HMS 1&2 material, which is also available in the market. The change to the name of the price will not affect historical […]
Market participants are reporting significant disruption in shipping containers of metal scrap