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Limited seller activity in Russia, ongoing weather concerns and signs of urgent spot demand underpinned the rally, even as weekly US export sales slowed and physical markets elsewhere showed mostly stable price levels.
By 1pm US Eastern time, the Chicago soft red winter (SRW) March futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade increased by 13 cents per bushel to $5.72 per bu, while the May contract rose by the same level to $5.79 per bushel (bu).
The Kansas hard red winter (HRW) March futures contract climbed by 11 cents per bu to $5.77 per bu. The May contract rose by 13 cents per bu to $5.89 per bu.
The Minneapolis hard red spring March futures contract increased by 8 cents per bu to $5.90 per bu, while the May contract rose by 8 cents per bu also to $6.02 per bu.
The French milling wheat contract on Euronext also trended higher, with the March contract up by €3.50 per tonne to settle at €197.25 ($232.41) per tonne at 6:30pm Central European time, while the May contract increased by €4.50 per tonne to €199.50 per tonne.
In Australia, no changes were heard in terms of price levels, with Fastmarkets’ assessments for Australian premium white (APW) for April loading remaining at $259 per tonne FOB Western ports, along with Australian standard white (ASW) at $249 per tonne same basis.
In the Black Sea, selling indications for Russian 12.5% wheat remained at $235 per tonne FOB Novorossiysk-Taman-Tuapse (NTT) for March-April loading, versus bids at $230-$233 per tonne for March loading.
“Limited seller activity keeps the market tight, with fair value around $234–235. Traders remain cautious due to uncertain weather, though melting ice may ease logistics”, a market participant said and added that rising domestic CPT and signals from CBOT/MATIF futures encourage some participants to hold back supply, keeping the sentiment firm.
At the same time, market sources said that given a default heard in the market, there is spot loading demand ready to pay up to $235–236 per tonne FOB NTT for urgency.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry kept its export taxes for wheat at zero for the February 25-March 5 period, with the indicative wheat price moving up by $1.90 per tonne to $229.90 per tonne compared with $228.00 per tonne in the previous period.
In Ukraine, offers for 11.5% wheat were stable at $230-$232 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) for March–April loading, along with bids at $227 per tonne FOB POC.
Selling indications to Algeria were reported at $259 per tonne CFR for March-April loading, while offers to Egypt were at at $252 per tonne CIF also for March-April loading.
Bids for Ukrainian feed wheat were reported at $218 per tonne for March.
In the EU Black Sea region, offers on an FOB Constanta basis for 12.5% wheat were heard unchanged dayon day at $237-$239 per tonne for March loading, versus bids on this basis at $235-$236 per tonne.
Offers for July-August loading of 12.5% wheat on a CVB basis were reported at €3 per tonne above the September Euronext wheat contract, against bids at €3 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract.
Offers for 11.5% wheat on an FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) basis were reported at $237-$239 per tonne for March loading, with bids on this basis at $232-$235 per tonne for March loading.
New crop 11.5% wheat on a CVB basis was reported offered at €2 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract for July-August loading, against bids at €6 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract for July-August loading.
Feed wheat bids on a CVB basis were again indicated at €9 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract for July-August loading.
Western and Central European wheat premiums were broadly stable on Friday after easing over the week.
French 11% protein wheat was assessed at a premium of €6 per tonne to the May contract for April loading.
Baltic 12.5% wheat cargo premiums were assessed at €9 per tonne over the May Euronext wheat contract for April loading dates, down €0.50 per tonne on Thursday, January 19’s assessment.
Polish FOB 12.5% wheat cargo premiums were assessed at €10 per tonne over the May Euronext wheat contract for April loading dates, unchanged on the previous levels.
The German 12.5% FOB wheat APM for April loading was assessed at €10.00 per tonne above the May Euronext contract.
The German 11.5% FOB wheat APM for April loading was assessed at €9.00 per tonne above the May Euronext contract.
The 11% FOB US Gulf HRW premiums were steady, with March at $1.45 per bu over the March Kansas HRW futures contract and April at $1.25 per bu over the May contract.
The 10.5% FOB US Gulf SRW front-month premiums were unchanged, with March at $1 per bu over the March Chicago SRW futures contract and April at 90 cents per bu over the May contract.
The 10% FOB Pacific Northwest soft white wheat market increased, with March up by $2 per tonne to $244 per tonne and April up by $1.25 per tonne to $242 per tonne.
US weekly wheat net sales for the 2025-26 crop year totaled 288,000 tonnes during the week to February 12, down by 41% from the previous week and down by 43% from the four-week average, according to data released by the USDA on Friday.
US exports of 322,600 tonnes were down by 44% from the previous week and down by 26% from the four-week average. Total accumulated exports for the 2025-26 marketing year reached 17.423 million tonnes, up by 21% from 14.389 million tonnes in the corresponding period the previous marketing year.
Canadian western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver front-month premiums were steady, with March at $1.30 per bu over the March Chicago Board of Trade futures contract and April at $1.25 per bu over the May contract.
Canadian durum prices were unchanged, with 14.5% wheat FOB Vancouver cargoes at $275 per tonne and FOB St Lawrence cargoes up at $290 per tonne.
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