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Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region prices for recycled fiber-based containerboard (RCCM) were a mixed bag of stable and decreased quotes, according to data reported for Fastmarkets’ PIX indices published on Tuesday October 7.
The indices for locally produced brown testliner and fluting experienced only modest changes, with both grades inching downward in September.
Fastmarkets’ PIX Testliner GCC index fell $1.77 per tonne, or 0.37%, to close at $473.22 per tonne and the PIX Fluting GCC index decreased $1.58 per tonne, or 0.35%, to $449.69 per tonne.
Market participants across the GCC region described the overall containerboard demand as more or less stable in September. In the region’s two largest markets, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), demand was reported as stable to marginally down month on month during September, with sources in the KSA saying they were approaching the end of the high summer season.
“Now that winter is approaching, the demand for beverages – water, juices and others – has slightly reduced [in September],” a KSA-based corrugator explained to Fastmarkets.
Another Saudi corrugator also said that schools reopening in August had an effect on demand, contributing to the slight differences recorded between August and September.
“Companies know that it will be back-to-school in August, so they start preparing in early August for the increased back-to-school shopping. Companies tend to produce more so they can meet the demand, and they can slightly relax in September,” he further elaborated.
A couple of market participants in the GCC region also mentioned that there was a shortage of cash in the market. This limited purchasing in parts of the region and affected demand for some customers.
One source reported difficulties in collecting payment from their customers, while another contact also said that some of their customers instead turned to European suppliers owing to both competitive prices and extended credit terms compared with local companies.
Meanwhile, in the UAE, market sources said demand was stable from last month, with summer vacations over and things going back to normal.
“Overall, I should say that the demand is okay, with a few customers buying less, but the majority of the orders were normal or slightly better. It is a mixed bag,” they told Fastmarkets.
However, one UAE-based corrugator felt demand to be good, citing the date and vegetable season in the country.
Recovered paper (RCP) prices continued to be stable in the KSA during September, according to Fastmarkets’ contacts. However, one corrugator selling leftover containerboard back to containerboard mills as RCP stated that they are planning to start the negotiations for the fourth quarter in early October.
New RCCM capacity in the KSA will also have an impact, one corrugator told Fastmarkets, referring to Red Sea and Al Jawdah. In addition, he said, Al Jawdah, which is active in the recycling business, would not release RCP into the market and would instead use it for its own production.
“So, we might see some tightness in the availability of RCP,” the source said.
However, one participant reported already feeling the effects of tighter availability, reporting increases of 30-50 Saudi Arabian riyal ($8-13) per tonne in RCP prices.
In the UAE, both producers and corrugators mostly reported seeing some slight reductions in RCP prices, with many noting a drop in demand as the main reason behind reduced prices during September.
European suppliers continued to have a strong presence in the UAE and KSA during September. The main competition for fluting and testliner came from GCC and European suppliers in September, contacts agreed.
“There is some very tough competition, especially from Europe. We find them very active everywhere in September. They are offering unacceptable pricing. It seems to me they [must be] facing low demand in Europe. That’s why they are dumping the materials here,” a market participant told Fastmarkets.
In the UAE, Indian suppliers had only a small presence, since their offers were not considered competitive enough.
“Local mills have placed themselves at very comfortable pricing so that, at this moment, nobody really matches those prices,” a UAE-based corrugator said. “If I import, I must save money. If import prices are the same as local mills, I won’t buy,” they added. In Europe, contacts have reported high RCCM supply and disappointing demand in September. So far this year, Heinzel, Mondi and Norske Skog have started converted PMs boosting Europe’s RCCM capacity by a total of 1.4 million tonnes per year. The increased capacity led to more offers from European suppliers into the GCC region.
“They are looking for trial orders from France,” a corrugator reported.
“[During] the last two months, a [European] producer has been dumping startup quantities in this area,” a GCC-based producer said.
International freight rates have been on a decline since June, according to Drewry’s World Container Index. The index fell approximately 50% from the most recent peak on June 12 at $3,543 to $1,669 per 40-foot container on October 2. This is the lowest level since January 2024.
Though international shipping freight rates have declined, all contacts in the region described land-based shipment costs as fairly stable.
Looking ahead, producers in the GCC region are keeping an eye on European demand. The end-of-year holidays are approaching, and this is expected to increase consumption in Europe and thus reduce European suppliers’ presence in the GCC market.
Meanwhile, the weather in the GCC region is starting to cool down from October onwards, and countries there are slowly entering the winter season, which brings reduced consumption and slowness to the market. However, everyone is looking forward to Ramadan starting earlier than in previous years, which means that the preparation for it will begin during the fourth quarter.
“Ramadan will start in early February, and we expect some good improvement in [demand for] November-December just as a preparation for the Ramadan season,” a GCC-based producer anticipated.
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