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Cobalt market participants are set to gather in London for LME Week 2025 over October 13-17. They will discuss annual supply contracts against a backdrop of rallying prices. This comes amid tightened future supply owing to the export quota system imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Cobalt prices have rallied since the announcement of the quota system on September 22. The 2026 export volumes from the DRC are limited to less than half of usual levels. Exports are permitted from October 16, for the first time since the export ban began on February 22.
With producers not receiving their export allocations for the quota system until early in the week, some buyers and sellers have told Fastmarkets they expect uncertainty to be a key topic of conversation. This uncertainty will persist for much of LME Week.
“The Democratic Republic of Congo, as the world’s leading producer, now holds real leverage to influence this strategic market, increase revenues, and improve the living conditions of its people. It is imperative to preserve these gains. For too long, our country has been a victim of predatory strategies,” DRC President Félix Tshisekedi said during a DRC government Council of Ministers meeting on October 3.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for cobalt hydroxide 30% Co min, cif China was $18.50-19.50 per lb on Friday October 10. This was up from $17.50-18.50 per lb the day before. The low end of the price range has risen by almost 28% in the 15 trading days since September 22.
Export volumes for 2026 are set at 7,250 tonnes from November 2025. This figure is less than half of usual monthly exports from the country.
“I think it will be very rare to see discounts being offered by suppliers for long-term deals. Premiums will be offered just to guarantee the security of supply,” a trader said.
Cobalt prices have rallied since the quota system announcement, before briefly pausing. This pause occurred after Chinese participants withdrew from the market for a public holiday on October 1-8. Since Wednesday, buying appetite in China has returned with prices resuming their rise at the end of the week ending October 10.
The recent rally in cobalt metal prices has been led by buyers in China sourcing material in large volumes following rumors. The rumors suggested that cobalt refiners had begun to use cobalt metal as feedstock for sulfate and tetroxide production. This is being used as an alternative to hydroxide due to tightened spot market availability of feedstock, sources told Fastmarkets.
“I didn’t expect the large volumes to trade so much so quickly, to be honest. It’s created a price rally right up to LME Week, where everyone will be talking about cobalt,” a second trader said.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam was $19.70-20.10 per lb on Friday. This narrowed upward from $19.40-20.10 per lb the previous day. The low end of the range is up by 23% since September 22.
The DRC remained the main supplier of mined cobalt in 2024, accounting for 78% of the global market, according to Fastmarkets’ analysis.
In 2025, an export ban was introduced on February 22 and extended twice. This happened on June 22 for a period of three months and again on September 22 until October 15. A quota system was set to follow.
Plans for the quota system for 2026 and 2027 were published with a base quota of 87,000 tonnes permitted. This allows 7,250 tonnes per month. This amount is roughly half of monthly export volumes in 2024, according to market participants.
“We did [the export ban] because someone needs to regain control,” the DRC’s mining minister, Louis Watum Kabamba, said during his keynote speech at the Cobalt Institute’s Climate Week roundtable in New York City on September 24.
According to Kabamba, the DRC deems it unfair that “we are still operating in a colonial-era type of business model from pit to port, where we export semi-finished products.”
DRC authorities have emphasized their intention to develop opportunities for domestic refining capacity within the country. The quota system allocates a ‘strategic quota’ of 9,600 tonnes in 2026 to the DRC government. This is reserved for projects of national strategic importance.
“It is through collective discipline and vigilance that the Democratic Republic of Congo will be able to fully benefit from its position as a world leader in cobalt. This will aid in the development of the country and its people,” President Tshisekedi said during the meeting on October 3.
In July, the DRC signed a strategic partnership agreement with local trading company Buenassa. The agreement aims to develop a copper-cobalt refinery project in the Lualaba province.