MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
Ukrainian domestic corn prices have been stable to firm since the start of the new corn season, despite market expectations of a decline driven by harvest pressure from a relatively large crop and limited demand from Ukraine’s traditional corn buyers. Market participants at the Berlin ECE event said that harvest delays and logistical constraints are the primary factors supporting the current price behavior.
According to trade sources, domestic DAP Ukraine prices for corn have resisted broader bearish pressure reported across global markets.Instead, buying ideas at the deep-sea ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa, and Chornomorsk (POC) were reported slightly higher week on week for nearby delivery. The increase was supported by slow harvest progress and, consequently, limited offered volumes for vessels already waiting to be loaded.
“The harvest was delayed, underpinned by railway logistics issues, especially from the northern regions of the country,” a trader said.As the railway logistics infrastructure in Ukraine is facing Russian missile and drone attacks every day, delivery time to the port has increased from roughly two to 10 days, according to the trade sources.
“Farmers are not rushing to sell, while exporters are already busy with November loading programs, so I think domestic prices remain supported until December,” the trader added.
However, most sources noted that the main factor keeping prices firm is the delay in the harvest – not so much due to slow crop development, but rather because persistent rains have hindered progress and slowed contract execution.
In addition, sources pointed out potential quality issues, as the harvested grain is coming in wet, which could lead to extra costs for drying.
Roughly 3 million tonnes of corn had already been booked for November shipment on a FOB POC basis, limiting the availability of cargo on the domestic DAP market for immediate spot deliveries and helping to maintain firm price levels.
At the same time, updated harvest data from Thursday October 23, showed that only 7.73 million tonnes have been harvested, which is a 50% lag compared with the 5.41 million tonnes gathered at the same period last year.
Current buying ideas were heard up to $205 per tonne DAP POC for spot delivery and $203 per tonne for November delivery. Meanwhile, bids on a FOB basis were heard at $212-215 per tonne for November shipment.
“I expect December will be different as the harvest will be mostly complete and no additional demand expected,” a Ukrainian-based trader said.
Several market participants expect the overall sentiment for November to be steady, with bids expected to be firm on a DAP and FOB basis amid further logistical tightness.
However, for December, a consensus has emerged that Ukrainian corn prices will need to decline significantly to maintain their competitiveness, as there is already a lack of fresh buying demand in the market, and Ukrainian origin remains relatively expensive for most of the key destinations.
Some key destination buyers are reportedly covered for their needs through January, which is limiting demand not only for Ukrainian corn but also for corn in general.
Confidence in Egypt’s state grain procurement has recently weakened due to ongoing payment delays associated with the relatively newly established and sole grain importer Mustaqbal Misr (Future of Egypt), sources told Fastmarkets at the event.
According to the line up available, there are currently at least 15 vessels with a nominal total of 365,348 tonnes of wheat currently waiting in Egypt’s port and booked for the GASC (General Authority of Supply Commodities), which used to be the state buyer before Mustaqbal Misr took over the imports role.
Some of the vessels have been stuck in the port for more than a month (since September 11-12), Fastmarkets understands.
It remains unclear whether the rumored payment delays are attributable to the end buyer, Mostabal Misr, or to the intermediary involved, Isotech. Both Mustaqbal Misr and Isottech were contacted by Fastmarkets for comment, but neither had responded by the time of publication.
“Misr, Isotech – both. It doesn’t really matter. The market sees them as one and the same,” a trader familiar with shipping material to Egypt said.
This is not the first time that payment delays have been reported in connection with Mustaqbal Misr, Fastmarkets understands that since the company entered the market in late 2024 – following an unsuccessful bid to secure official tenders – it has attempted to procure grain directly from the market.
However, due to the purchasing terms, particularly the extended payment periods of up to 270 days through letters of credit, many suppliers have been reluctant to engage directly. As a result, a significant share of purchases have taken place via third-party companies, often involving a premium over standard private-sector prices for Egypt.
Although sources said there were a few big, reliable companies known to work directly, they have the resources to wait longer then smaller companies for payment.
“While payment challenges are not entirely new, the situation has become more pronounced,” a second trade source said. “There is a tendency to work with smaller or less-established suppliers and the larger, international firms are increasingly cautious.”
Most of the affected shipments are from Ukrainian suppliers, although sources told Fastmarkets that some cargoes also originated from Russia, Moldova, Romania and Serbia.
Some market participants said that due diligence on both sides could be improved.
Others said the current delays might already have led to a reduction in the offer prices for cargoes already afloat. But, given the relatively small volumes delayed in Egypt’s ports, the current situation is unlikely to be a long-lasting event.
“[Mustaqbal Misr only] began operating last year,” a source said.
“Previously, the government procurement [process] was seen as more stable. The introduction of new intermediaries has introduced additional complexity to the process,” the source added.
For now, we understand that some trading companies are working to manage the discharge process and secure storage to avoid further demurrage, while also seeking new buyers for some of the cargoes. However, there’s no indication that the payment issue has been resolved.
The establishment of Mustaqbal Misr was supposed to make state purchasing quicker and easier, but apparently things are not going that way.
Ongoing reports of delays and unfulfilled contracts are contributing to concerns about the future reliability of Egypt’s procurement system in general, with previous experiences making companies less likely to work with the state importer.
Egypt is the world’s biggest wheat importer, with annual estimated imports at 13 million tonnes for the 2025/26 marketing year, according to the US Department of Agriculture, and the wheat imports are an especially sensitive product for the country.
Traditionally, around half of the country’s wheat import needs have been covered by state purchases within tenders, but now that purchases are being made directly, the pace of buying is unclear.
Mustaqbal Misr was also making direct purchases of French wheat, according to media reports, at around $240 per tonne FOB, which is well above the price idea heard in the market last week for French wheat, which was around $225 per tonne FOB for 11% protein wheat.
No problems were reported with the execution of the deals for French wheat, Fastmarkets understands.
Mustaqbal Misr also purchased of a total of 32,000 tonnes of Kazakh wheat in September – a rare occurrence that coincided with an official Egyptian government visit to Kazakhstan.
From January to June, 2025, Egypt’s wheat imports have fallen by 25% to 4.7 million tonnes, according to official Egyptian customs data. Around 68% of the total is sourced from Russia, followed by Ukrainian supplies (23%) and Romania (4%).
From July to October 13, Egypt’s imports of Ukrainian wheat have increased significantly year on year – to around 1.68 million tonnes, up from 659,000 tonnes in the same four months in 2024.
Imports from Russia, meanwhile, have declined by 17% to the current 2.7 million tonnes, along imports from European countries (Romania, Bulgaria, France) also dropping by 62% to 259,326 tonnes, according to European Commission data.
Fastmarkets Agriculture understands the challenges faced by the grains and oilseeds industry due to disruptions in production and logistics. As global demand for food, livestock and machinery continues to rise, these disruptions cause increased opacity and volatility in the market.