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The US has just taken a decisive step toward turning critical minerals from a supply-chain concern into a full-blown trade and pricing issue.
On Wednesday January 14, US President Donald Trump signed a proclamation ordering the Commerce Department and the US Trade Representative to launch Section 232 negotiations on imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products (PCMDPs).
Tariffs, minimum import prices and other trade restrictions are explicitly on the table if talks with trading partners fail.
For commodity markets, the headline is not the investigation itself, but the remedies now being openly discussed.
This is no longer just about permitting, subsidies or strategic stockpiles. Washington is signaling a willingness to intervene directly in how critical minerals are priced and traded into the US.
The proclamation explicitly instructs negotiators to consider price floors for trade in critical minerals.
This is key — Section 232 actions have historically focused on volumes or tariffs. Price floors go further, directly influencing market pricing and potentially redefining what ‘fair value’ means for strategically important minerals.
For thinly traded or opaque markets — rare earths, gallium, germanium, indium and other battery materials — a US-mandated minimum price could ripple through contract formulas, arbitrage flows and benchmark relevance.
In short, Washington is signaling that if import prices are so low that they undermine domestic processing and production capacity, they pose a national security risk.
The administration is following a familiar Section 232 playbook: negotiations first, unilateral action later. Trading partners have up to 180 days to secure agreements that address US concerns over supply security, price volatility and foreign dominance of processing capacity.
If those talks fail — or produce outcomes Washington deems insufficient — the proclamation makes clear that import adjustments will follow. Tariffs, minimum prices or other restrictions remain very much on the table.
For exporters, particularly those outside allied jurisdictions, this creates immediate policy risk. For US buyers, it introduces uncertainty over costs, contract structures and long-term supply strategies.
The Commerce Department report cuts to the real bottleneck: the US lacks domestic processing capacity.
The US is 100% import-reliant for 12 critical minerals and at least 50% reliant for another 29. Even where domestic mining exists, downstream capacity does not.
Rare earths are the clearest example: the US is the world’s second-largest producer of mined rare earth oxides yet still has to export material for refining and then reimport finished products.
From Washington’s perspective, this makes cheap imports a liability, not a benefit. If low prices hollow out domestic processing capacity, they become a strategic vulnerability — and one the administration now appears willing to correct through trade policy.
Commerce also points the finger at price volatility, arguing that it has discouraged investment, driven facility closures and pushed US producers offshore.
This is a notable shift in tone: volatile prices are no longer just a market feature, but a justification for intervention, with the government positioning itself as the stabilizer of last resort.
For producers, processors and traders, the takeaway is simple: access to the US market is becoming conditional.
Cost and quality alone may no longer guarantee entry; alignment with US supply chain strategy may matter just as much.
Allied producers could benefit, while others may see cheap imports lose their edge.
Traders and consumers, meanwhile, face a future where contract formulas and arbitrage routes could all be affected if price floors are imposed.
The Commerce Department will continue monitoring imports and can recommend further action at any time. That means Section 232 is no longer a one-off event; it’s now a standing pressure point over critical minerals.
In Hotter Commodities, special correspondent Andrea Hotter covers some of the biggest stories impacting the natural resources sector. Read more coverage on our dedicated Hotter Commodities page here.