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The 2026 Fastmarkets North America Biofuels and Feedstock Conference underscored a simple reality: biomass-based diesel growth is no longer just a story of rising capacity and supportive demand forecasts. The market is now being shaped by a tougher mix of policy design, feedstock availability, certification requirements and co-product economics. In today’s environment, success depends less on broad decarbonization momentum than on the ability to manage feedstock supply, compliance and margins with precision.
One of the clearest messages from the conference was biomass-based diesel can no longer be viewed through a single lens. The market now sits at the intersection of energy, agriculture, logistics, trade policy, carbon accounting and refining economics. This means producers must think about biofuel demand, feedstock procurement, carbon intensity, export competitiveness and credit values at the same time. The value chain is more interconnected than at any stage of its recent expansion, raising both the opportunity and the execution risk for market participants.
Policy remained the dominant theme, but the conversation has become more specific. The issue is no longer whether policy supports biomass-based diesel demand; it is which policies matter most, how they interact and how quickly companies can adapt. Measures such as 45Z, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and low-carbon fuel programs are shaping feedstock eligibility, pathway economics, credit values and investment decisions. For the market, policy is still the main driver, but execution will determine who captures the upside.
The strongest reality check at the conference was the difference in production capacity and feedstock supply. Used cooking oil (UCO), animal fats and other residues remain critical to growth, even as oilseed processing investment is needed to expand domestic supply potential. The challenge is not the feedstock growth in aggregate, but the amount in correct form, geography, carbon intensity profile or price range to support all planned capacity. As a result, competitive advantage is shifting away from simple build-out and toward sourcing resilience, low-carbon access and disciplined capital allocation.
Certification and traceability also emerged as strategic issues rather than back-office tasks. As carbon intensity and feedstock origin claims come under greater scrutiny, documentation quality can directly affect market access and credit value. Producers increasingly need to decide which certification regimes to prioritize, where to invest in traceability systems and how to manage rising verification costs. Strong documentation is becoming a commercial advantage, not just a compliance requirement.
As soybean oil demand for biofuels production rises, crush expansion will generate larger volumes of soybean meal requiring additional reliable end markets. While US domestic soybean meal consumption is expected to grow to absorb some of the new production, the market will rely on continued expansion of import markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to balance global supply and demand. Soy crushers will not be able to rely on increasing soybean oil prices alone to maintain crush margins and continue to expand capacity.
Taken together, the conference pointed to a biomass-based diesel market entering a more demanding phase. The sector still benefits from policy support and long-term decarbonization tailwinds, but profitable growth will depend increasingly on feedstock security, carbon-intensity management, certification readiness and commercial discipline. The message from Chicago was clear: the market is still growing, but the conditions for winning in it are becoming stricter.
For those trading in the biofuels and feedstocks market, we capture pricing across the complex marketplace, including biodiesel, glycerin, renewable identification numbers (RINs), California’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits and related certificate markets in Europe.