Market transparency improved by Fastmarkets’ new Egypt wheat price, freight assessments

Consequently, Fastmarkets has enhanced market visibility with the launch on Wednesday May 20 of two wheat CIF Egypt price assessments, alongside freight rate coverage for all key export origins supplying the country.

Egypt remains the world’s largest wheat importer, with an annual volume of 12.5 million tonnes expected to be imported in the 2026/27 marketing season, starting from July 2026, according to the USDA.

Although the Middle Eastern country’s government has a target to boost domestic production to 9.8 million tonnes in marketing year 2026/27 – which would be a 6.5% rise from last year’s 9.2 million tonnes – this uptick will do little to lessen the country’s entrenched dependence on imports, while structural demand continues to outpace local supply.

The Egyptian government is trying to achieve self-sufficiency in the subsidized bread program and, as part of its strategy, has increased the domestic paid price to E£16,500 ($313) per tonne, intending to prompt farmers to sell to the government and achieve a target of 5 million tonnes of local procurement.

Hesham Soliman, director of Mediterranean Star Trading & Grain Import Co, said that the government’s need for wheat imports could drop by 10-15%. But he noted that Mostaqbal Misr (the Future of Egypt) had imported 3.1 million tonnes from January to mid May. Along with the planned 5 million tonnes of local procurement, this left around 1.9 million tonnes of import requirements by the end of the year.

At the same time, it seems that private imports will continue at the normal pace, with around 3.7 million tonnes already imported since January, according to Soliman. Private imports were usually no less than 8 million tonnes per year in total.

Even with higher production expected in the country, the newly set price of $320 per tonne might keep private sector users away from the local market, and they might continue to import cheaper wheat of Russian and Ukrainian origins.

“Local production will not increase in a day or two,” a local broker said. “An increase in production faces an increase of population. If they can collect more from local crops, it does not mean a big decrease in imports, at least not in recent years.”

Egyptian demand has recently softened following active purchasing in the previous month. But trade sources expect private buyers to re-enter the market shortly to secure wheat for late June-July shipments, while state buyers were still expected to cover July-August requirements.

According to mirror trade data, Egypt imported approximately 13.3 million tonnes of wheat during January-December 2025.

In January-March 2026, imports reached 4.4 million tonnes, significantly exceeding the 3.15 million tonnes recorded in the same period last year, as well as the three-year average of 3.2 million tonnes.

This indicates that Egypt’s purchasing activity in the early months of 2026 has been stronger than typical.

As a result, the recent slowdown in buying was largely expected, particularly while the market approaches the new crop cycle, when prices are generally expected to ease amid favorable production outlooks.

With no significant inverse relationship between old- and new-crop pricing structures, buyers currently have limited incentive to engage in active purchasing.

Against this backdrop, Fastmarkets launched its price assessments for wheat 11.5%, cif Egypt, and wheat 12.5%, cif Egypt, on May 20 to better reflect pricing across key origins supplying the country, including Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria.

In addition, Fastmarkets has launched freight rate assessments for Handy-sized cargoes loading from Ukraine – freight Ukraine-Egypt and the Constanta-Varna-Burgas corridor into Egypt – freight CVB-Egypt, while also clarifying the existing Black Sea-North Africa route, which has historically reflected flows from Russia to Egypt – freight Russia-Egypt.

These price assessments were expected to enhance market transparency, particularly in light of the expected resumption of trading activity and Egypt’s pivotal role as the world’s leading wheat importer.

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