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For manufacturers responsible for packaging procurement, changes in the European paper and board market remain an important watchpoint. Rising import penetration, weaker production levels and ongoing trade disruptions are contributing to a more uncertain sourcing environment across the region.
The European paper and board industry is increasingly subject to a “slow and sustained erosion of its industrial base,” at a time when foreign state support and asymmetric market conditions weigh on the continent’s competitiveness, Cepi said in a press briefing on Thursday July 2.
Cepi has said that trade balance was under sustained pressure in 2025, even though it remained positive overall. Exports were down by 1.3% while imports increased by 1.7%, with import penetration reaching a record 7.7% of EU consumption.
At the same time, European P&B production declined by 1.6% in 2025 and was still 7% below the record levels of 2021 amid heightened global competition.
Yet the industry continues to struggle with overcapacity. In 2025, the area Cepi covers produced 78.6 million tonnes of paper and board and consumed 68.1 million tonnes.
The worries about a worsening trade balance are playing out against a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks that have scarred the industry. Apparent consumption has suffered, taking the biggest hit in 2023 when it declined 15.3% as a result of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent destocking.
The problem of overcapacity in Europe has been exacerbated by an influx of cheap imports, mainly from China, Indonesia and Turkey. However, cheap Chinese imports represent a particularly significant problem for European P&B producers, also due to the country’s increasing overcapacity.
According to Fastmarkets’ trade statistics, imports of paper and board from China rose by 26% in the first four months of 2026. Additionally, imports from Indonesia have increased by 23% over the same period.
“Compared to Europe, the Asian paper and board markets have experienced a more pronounced decline in operating rates amid steady capacity growth, while demand has remained weak. This situation has compelled Asian suppliers to export as much as possible. Additionally, the widening price gap between Europe and Asia has provided better profit margins for selling to Europe rather than in domestic Asian markets. However, increased shipping costs since the onset of the war in the Middle East have reduced these profit gains,” said Fastmarkets’ economist, Alejandro Mata.
Furthermore, Chinese suppliers of folding boxboard (FBB) have been approaching Europe with very low prices, to the extent that European producers were considering asking the European Commission to begin an anti-dumping investigation into cartonboard imports from China.
“However, it is important to note that these trends in the first four months may have been influenced by companies exporting in anticipation of potential logistics disruptions due to the crisis in the Middle East,” Mata added.
In the press briefing, Cepi announced that it has joined AEGIS Europe, an industry alliance with over 25 European manufacturing associations, to call for stronger trade defense instruments in order to help stop what is perceived as an increasing deindustrialization of Europe.
“A slow drift may be less visible than a sudden shock, but its long-term consequences for Europe’s industrial resilience, climate leadership, and strategic autonomy are no less significant,” Jori Ringman, Cepi’s secretary general, said in a statement.
AEGIS has previously lobbied for greater trade protection measures for European industries, especially against cheap Chinese imports. In May, the association wrote to the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, calling for “faster and more effective trade defense procedures.”
The association has specifically urged for the creation of a new on-demand EU instrument to address foreign overcapacities and their disruptive consequences for European industries and value chains.
Cepi has drawn attention to the EU’s historical reluctance to take action on unfair trade practices against its trade partners. Over the last 25 years, 45 countries have launched anti-dumping or safeguarding investigations against EU P&B producers, while the EU has launched only six of the same against foreign countries, according to Cepi.
“We have to be more vocal about trade defense instruments,” Bernard Lombard, Cepi’s director of trade and industrial policy, has said.
The problem of Chinese dumping has been exacerbated by the introduction of US tariffs in April 2025, as Chinese producers diverted volumes away from the US into other global markets.
The tariffs also affected European producers more directly, who also suffered volume loss from customers in the US. Total EU P&B exports to the US in 2025 declined by 4.2%, while imports from the US also declined by 7.6%, according to figures from Cepi.
EU exports and imports to the US declined by a further 13.8% and 12.4%, respectively, between January and March 2026.
Since August 7, 2025, US tariffs on EU pulp, paper and board had been 15%, 15% for Norway and Switzerland and 10% for the UK.
In February 2026, however, the US Supreme Court ruled that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose reciprocal tariffs was illegal. Since then, a number of US companies have applied for tariff refunds.
As trade flows, import volumes and policy discussions continue to evolve, packaging buyers may benefit from closely monitoring developments in the European paper and board market. Explore the latest market insights to better understand factors influencing packaging procurement and budgeting decisions.