US scrap trends outlook: December 2024

Here are the key takeaways from market participants on US ferrous scrap metal prices, market confidence, inventory and more from our December survey

What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?

  • The December US ferrous scrap market trend indicator turns mildly bearish at 45.4
  • The three-month trend indicator reflects an optimistic outlook for early 2025
  • Both buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2
  • Demand remains low and keeps prices down, but the market is poised for changes ahead

Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for December or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.

US scrap market steadies amidst lower demand for December 2024

The December scrap market reflects a stable phase, with a mild bearish trend indicator of 45.4. However, optimism is building for early 2025, as the 3-month trend indicator shows positive momentum, and the 6-month trend indicator has reached its highest level in 18 months. Accordingly, the December scrap price change is forecasted at +0.8%. 

Tariffs and foreign trade new conditions are influencing the market.

Survey participant

Cautious outlook and supply constraints

Consensus around the market direction remains measured. Buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook, with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, respectively, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2, although still below the neutral threshold of 50. Inventories across US scrap mills stand at 47.7, below the standard average of 50, indicating supply constraints.

Demand remains low, but the market is poised for changes ahead

Despite the flat movement expected for December, the higher forward-looking indicators suggest participants are preparing for potential shifts. Lower demand remains a key driver keeping prices subdued, but the market is poised for significant changes as 2025 unfolds.

What to read next
Alex Kershaw unpacks the recent volatility in global scrap steel markets and what is driving price movements across key regions. From the US and Europe to Turkey and China, the discussion explores how rising energy and freight costs are lifting prices despite weak steel demand.
As US automotive OEMs localize supply chains and accelerate EV rollout, margin pressure is intensifying across steel, aluminium and battery inputs.
In this short episode of Fast Forward, Alex Kershaw, senior analyst for steel, raw materials and ferrous scrap at Fastmarkets, unpacks the recent volatility in global scrap steel markets and what is driving price movements across key regions.
Despite mixed signals on box demand, significant capacity reductions and rising costs are enabling US containerboard producers to push for a second major price increase this year.
The US company EVelution Energy outlined its plans to produce 3,000 tonnes per year of cobalt metal in the United States from Congolese hydroxide, speaking with Fastmarkets on Wednesday May 13 on the sidelines of the Cobalt Congress that took place in Madrid, Spain (May 12-13).
Vietnam’s ambitions to become a burgeoning processing hub for secondary metals is hitting a wall of private-sector skepticism, Fastmarkets heard on the sidelines of the Third China Metal Recycling Spring Conference (CMRA 2026) held in Hanoi, Vietnam on May 9-12.