China’s 2020-21 wheat import estimate to surge 140% on year

China’s wheat imports this year will surge to nearly one-and-a-half times that of the last marketing year due to growing demand in the animal feed sector.

China’s wheat imports in the 2020-21 marketing year are expected to reach 10 million million tonnes. This is a 140% surge from the 4.2 million tonnes recorded in the last marketing year, according to a webcast organised by the China National Grain & Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) on Wednesday June 30.

What is causing the surge?
The increase stems from growing demand from the animal feed sector, with estimates for 2020-21 wheat consumption in feed put at 38 million tonnes. This is nearly 150% up from a volume of 15.5 million tonnes in the previous year.

Given this rapidly growing demand from the feed sector, China has purchased record volumes of wheat for use as a substitute for corn, traditionally the primary grain in animal rations, amid declining corn stockpiles and production in the domestic market from last year.

Lower wheat prices in China’s market also push the livestock sector to snap up the grain to replace corn, where prices have surged over the year.

“We can see the prices of wheat on markets have been much lower than corn’s since October last year,” Li Shengjun, deputy director at the department of decision-making service at CNGOIC, said.

Surging consumption of wheat is expected to create a deficit of 3.04 million tonnes between supply and demand in 2021-22, with the total consumption at 147.3 million tonnes and supply at 144.2 million tonnes.

At the same time, CNGOIC estimated the volume of China’s import wheat in 2021-22 at 8 million tonnes amid increased wheat production and declining total consumption in the new marketing year.

Consumption is expected to at 136.4 million tonnes.

With China’s 2021-22 wheat total consumption expected at 145.6 million tonnes and supply at 144.4 million tonnes, a gap between supply and demand of around 1.15 million tonnes will emerge

This article, by Cai Chen, was first published to agricensus.com on Wednesday June 30.

What to read next
The publication of Fastmarkets’ AG-PLM-0019 refined bleached deodorised (RBD) palm olein, cfr South China assessment for Thursday July 24 was delayed due to a reporter error. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated.
Chinese corn import activity continued to be sluggish in June, dropping to 156,445 tonnes, down by 32,000 tonnes, 17%, from 188,542 tonnes in May, according to the latest data from the country’s General Administration of Customs (GACC).
US corn futures opened the week on Monday July 21 lower amid continued crop development and expectations for overall favorable growing conditions.
China’s push for greener ferro-alloy production has revealed a significant divide between its northern and southern regions due to contrasting access to clean energy, supply and demand dynamics and regulatory environments, according to market participants.
The publication of the affected prices was delayed for 50 minutes. The following indices were published late: MB-MNO-0001 Manganese ore high grade index, cif Tianjin, $ per dmtu MB-MNO-0002 Manganese ore semi carbonate index, 36.5% Mn, fob Port Elizabeth, $/dmtu MB-MNO-0003 Manganese ore semi carbonate index, 36.5% Mn, cif Tianjin, $/dmtu These prices are a part of the […]
The purpose of this review is to ensure that the index continues to accurately reflect prevailing market conditions. We welcome feedback from industry participants on potential amendments to the base specification. This consultation, which is open until August 9, 2025 seeks to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the physical market under indexation, in […]