Automobile sales: China targets a 3% growth in 2025

China set a higher target for automobile sales in 2025 compared with a year earlier, with the country aiming to keep the upward momentum in 2026, according to a notice published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) on Friday September 12

Key takeaways:

  • China’s 2025 automobile sales target is set at 32.3 million units. NEV sales are projected to grow by 20% to 15.5 million units.
  • Automobile production and sales in the first eight months of 2025 showed a 12.7% and 12.6% year-on-year increase respectively. This reflects a strong start to the year.
  • Despite the NEV growth, market participants remain cautious about its impact on steel demand, with high inventories and declining prices in some steel categories.

China sets ambitious 2025 automobile sales target

The 2025 sales target now stands at 32.3 million units, up by 3% from 2024. Of which, the sales of new energy vehicles (NEV) are projected to reach 15.5 million units, up by 20% from in 2024. 

Chinese automobile sales totaled 31.44 million units in 2024. With that of NEV at 12.87 million units. This was according to data published by China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM).

“The target can be achieved easily because the first eight months have a sharp year-on-year increase,” an industry analyst said.

Strong start to 2025 boosts automobile sales projections

China’s automobile production totaled 21.05 million units in the first eight months of 2025. It was up by 12.7% or 2.37 million units from 18.68 million units during the same period a year earlier. Sales totaled 21.13 million units in the same period. And were up by 12.6% or 2.37 million units year on year from 18.76 million units.

Market reaction: Will increased automobile sales drive steel demand?

Market participants told Fastmarkets that the country’s latest targets were in line with expectations. But they were also of the view that it may not lead to stronger steel demand.

“Prices of hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil and hot-dipped galvanized coil, which are used in auto making, weren’t stimulated to increase by the MITT’s notice,” a steel trader based in Shanghai said.

Fastmarkets’ daily assessment for steel hot-rolled coil domestic, ex-whs Eastern China was at 3,410-3,420 yuan ($479-481) per tonne on Monday September 15. It was up by 20 yuan per tonne from 3,390-3,400 yuan per tonne on Friday September 12 due to the bullish sentiment caused by expectations of capping steel capacity.

Meanwhile, the high inventories in the spot market and a lack of recovery in demand weighed on the CRC and HDG markets, according to sources.

Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for steel cold-rolled coil domestic, ex-whs Eastern China was at 3,800-3,840 yuan per tonne on Friday. And down by 10-30 yuan per tonne from 3,830-3,850 yuan per tonne a week earlier on September 5.

Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for steel hot-dipped galvanized coil domestic, ex-whs Eastern China was at 4,100-4,150 yuan per tonne on Friday. This was unchanged from a week earlier.

“The increase in the annual target was even lower than the pace seen during the January-August period, which could lead to bearish expectations toward the demand for HRC, CRC and HDG for the rest of this year,” a trader based in Hangzhou said.

NEV growth to support electrical steel demand

There are also expectations among market participants that the higher target for NEV sales could support the demand for electrical steel in the long term, sources told Fastmarkets.

China produced 9.63 million units of NEV in the first eight months of 2025. Production was up by 37.3% or 2.62 million units from 7.01 million units during the same period a year earlier. Sales of NEV totaled 9.62 million units in the same period. These were up by 36.7% or 2.58 million units year on year from 7.04 million units, according to CAAM.

“Brighter prospects of NEV led to a boost in investments into electrical steel production lines. The steel product has found itself in oversupply, with prices declining gradually in the past few months of this year,” a second steel trader in Shanghai said.

Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment for electrical steel, non-grain oriented, ex-whs Eastern China was at $580-639 per tonne on September 12, compared with $581-630 per tonne on September 5. The price is down by $32-64 per tonne from $644-671 per tonne on January 3.

“The new capacity of NGOES launched in 2025 is estimated to exceed 3 million tonnes. The price competition seems inevitable though demand for the product is on an uptrend,” an industry analyst said.

Want to overcome the automotive business risks that come with volatile raw materials markets? Explore our guide to automotive trends, EV battery materials and raw materials pricing for the global car manufacturing industry.

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