Fastmarkets monthly BRM market update

Key points

1. Market buzz: CATL mine rumours stir price
   Prices dipped at the end of October as rumors within the market indicated that CATL’s Jianxiawo lepidolite mine would reopen ‘soon’. With several different accounts of when ‘soon’ may be, some even reporting the mine was already reopening, these rumors were unable to be verified as CATL provided no update. Despite the bearish sentiment that the rumors had on the price, the mine, once reopened, will take time to come online and ramp back up. Given this and the news that CATL has been purchasing ore for November, it is unlikely that supply will hit the market, at least for November.
   

2. China’s ESS boom: lithium carbonate demand set to soar
   The focus on ESS (Energy Storage System) growth within the Chinese industrial strategy has led to strong demand within the market and has provided price support going into the end of the year. Within the newest forecast, Fastmarkets expects lithium-related ESS demand to increase by over 20% from 2025 to 2026. As the predominant cathode chemistry for ESS applications in China is LFP, it will be lithium carbonate that will benefit most from this increase in demand.
   

3. Spodumene prices surge: ESS demand and year-end restocking drive market activity
   Spodumene prices have been increasing, in light of demand from ESS, as well as from seasonal demand with restocking activity before the end of the year. The declines, as mentioned in point 1, due to the CATL rumors, also led to increased buying activity with participants capitalizing on the downtrend. As the cure for high prices is high prices, continuing price rises may see some participants take a step back. There seems to be enough material in the market to cover current demand, but with the flurry of activity from the ESS market, as well as increased positive sentiment that prices may recover next year, we may yet see prices continue to rise over the coming months with a replenishing of inventories.
   

What do our analysts say?

We expect prices to remain strong for Q4; the lithium market sentiment is positive with strengthening demand from the downstream sector, particularly in light of the Chinese policy focus on the growth of the ESS sector. Whilst we did see prices wane at the end of October as rumors continue to swirl in regards to the reopening of CATL’s mine, these rumors were unable to be verified.

Claudia Cook, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. DRC’s cobalt quota sparks price surge amid future supply concerns
   The market has been coming to terms with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) quota system, which was unveiled at the end of September. The 87,000 tonnes of cobalt exportable per year from the country are likely insufficient to keep the market in balance in 2026 and in 2027. As a result, cobalt prices rose strongly in October.
   

2. Seaborne cobalt prices soar: October see 28% surge
   Prices in the seaborne market, which had started to climb towards the end of September as the market took on board the quota’s implications, continued to rise throughout October. The monthly average price for standard grade, in warehouse Rotterdam, jumped by 28% to $20.6 per lb, with the low-end of the price range standing at $23 per lb at the end of the month.
   

3. China’s cobalt imports surge: DRC exports set to boost supply in 2026
   Imports of cobalt metal into China reached a near-term high in September, as producers scrambled for feed. There was also a surprise sequential increase in hydroxide imports into China in September, although overall volumes were low. With the DRC allowing exports to resume in mid-October, material should start to arrive in China in early 2026.
   

What do our analysts say?

Fastmarkets expects the DRC’s quota system to squeeze supply in the next two years–unless quotas are revised higher. This has already caused prices to surge, and prices are likely to remain elevated for as long as current quota levels remain in force. With cobalt mostly used in batteries, where cobalt content can be altered, the longer prices remain elevated, the more likely it is that EV manufacturers will seek to move to low-cobalt, or cobalt-free chemistries. This could slow demand in the medium-term.

Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Nickel prices hold steady: October averages $15,080 per tonne
   The nickel price continued to trade either side of the $15,000 per tonne level in October. The LME nickel cash price averaged $15,080 per tonne, down by 0.15% from the $15,102 per tonne average in September.
   

2. Nickel oversupply persists: Indonesia key to restoring market balance
   The market remains in a state of significant oversupply, a situation that has persisted since 2022. With Indonesia as the largest producer of nickel, the country must be part of the supply discipline needed to bring the market back into balance.
   

3. Indonesia’s mine quota reviews and royalties pose supply risks
   Indonesia is now implementing annual mine quota reviews–which could be used to limit supply–and has increased royalties. There is also greater environmental oversight in the country. However, these are merely supply risks since no concrete measures have been taken to limit domestic production significantly. Until concrete measures are announced, the price is unlikely to find support.
   

What do our

analysts say?

Structural oversupply has left the nickel market in surplus since 2022, leading to weakening nickel prices. Since Fastmarkets expects another large market surplus this year, and for surpluses to continue, it is hard to expect any near-term improvement in pricing. For prices to see any significant upside, greater supply discipline is required.

Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Battery-grade manganese sulfate: October stability, November dip
   Battery-grade manganese sulfate prices were largely rangebound throughout October before once again seeing a small rise in the assessed range in the final week of the month. Some of these gains were reduced in early November with the range settling lower on November 7.
   

2. Production slows on high-purity manganese sulfate
   Following the rise in high-purity manganese sulfate production that we saw in August, rates slowed once again in September, falling to 42% across the month. This level is still the second-highest monthly production rate of the year.
   

3. September sees marginal decline in manganese demand amid NCM challenges
   Demand from China’s pCAM sector showed a marginal decline in manganese demand in September, highlighting the ongoing challenges in the NCM market.
   

What do our analysts say?

Our expectations of ongoing strengthening battery-grade demand and production in China in Q4 have been tempered somewhat by ongoing challenges within the NCM market. While we expect a level of demand ramp-up in Q4, in the wider context of geopolitical challenges and a challenging Chinese market, the manganese demand uptick in the short term could be somewhat tempered.

Rob Searle, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. US-China trade agreement brings clarity to graphite anode material flow 
   An agreement between the US and China that stabilizes trade relations for the next year is set to provide a clearer picture about the flow of graphite anode materials but will still shape the flow of battery graphite given the market’s weak short-term fundamentals. 
   

2. Sythentic graphite gains slow amid US-China trade stability
   Recent gains on the synthetic side of the market have slowed following the stabilization in US and China trade relations; however, green petroleum coke, one of the few parts of the market that China imports from the US, is still pushing higher.
   

3. Graphite flake markets stagnate amid weak supply and demand in China
   Graphite flake markets remain stagnant as weak supply and demand fundamentals in China leave little room for the market to move higher through the end of the year.
   

What do our analysts say?

The agreement between the US and China to roll back planned export restrictions on markets such as graphite is set to provide a stable picture for the next year. However, for graphite, it leaves many existing trade barriers in place which should solidify shifts in how China and the US are finding alternatives to each other in their natural and synthetic supply chains. 

Andrew Saucer, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Black mass value surges as cobalt prices rise
   Since late September, Fastmarkets’ cobalt standard grade in-whs Rotterdam has surged 43% to $50.71/kg, setting a record high since black mass pricing began in May 2023. This price spike has lifted NCM black mass value by about 25% across Europe, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and the U.S., while China saw a smaller 19% increase due to higher lithium payables. For LCO chemistries, the impact is even stronger, with gains of 53% in South Korea and 55% in Europe.
   

2. LFP boom drives battery recycling innovation
   As LFP, a cobalt-free chemistry, becomes more prevalent, recyclers face a new challenge: its lower intrinsic value compared to nickel-rich chemistries makes recycling less profitable, creating an urgent need for cheap, practical solutions. Recent research from Rice University introduces a process that uses only electricity and water to recover 94% of lithium at 99% purity from LFP cathodes, consuming one-tenth the energy of conventional methods.
   

3. Tech giants enter the recycling business to power the AI boom with second-life batteries
   As AI drives an unprecedented surge in energy demand, tech leaders are turning to waste EV batteries. Redwood Materials recently launched Redwood Energy, a division dedicated to repurposing EV batteries into large-scale energy storage systems (ESS). A few weeks ago, Redwood received funding from Nvidia’s investment arm, NVentures, showing a growing interest in big tech getting their hands on accessible batteries to feed their energy-hungry data centers.
   

What do our analysts say?

The recent surge in cobalt prices to record highs has temporarily eased pressure on recyclers, transforming cobalt-rich black mass into a highly sought-after feedstock and boosting margins. This relief comes at a critical time for the recycling market, which has been grappling with limited feedstock availability, low operating volumes, and mounting financial losses—further compounded by regulatory challenges such as the reclassification of black mass as hazardous waste in Europe.

Andre Cortesao, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. UK EV market hits 37.5% share in October, BEVs maintain 2:1 lead over PHEVs
   EV sales within the UK grew to 37.5% market share in October, growing over 24% in a marginally growing new car market. BEV sales grew slightly less quickly than PHEV sales, the former growing 23.6% year-over-year, but BEV sales still resoundingly outnumber PHEVs at a 2:1 ratio despite advances from new Chinese entrants threatening to sell more PHEVs.
   

2. Chinese passenger vehicle sales stall in October
   Chinese passenger vehicle sales growth hit a bit of a roadblock in October, as passenger vehicle sales grew just 0.6% while domestic NEV sales increased less than 10% year-over-year. This didn’t meet the Chinese Passenger Car Association’s expectations of 6% growth that was based upon wholesale sales growth, owing significantly to growing exports from China.
   

3. US light vehicle sales drop 4.5% in October amid EV demand weakness
   US light vehicle sales fell 4.5% year-over-year in October following a combination of weakening demand for EVs post-subsidy elimination and macroeconomic uncertainty worsened by the government shutdown.
   

What do our analysts say?

While the data coming out of the US isn’t exactly positive, it is well within expectations; it’s also worth considering that it will have been exacerbated by the government shutdown’s effect on consumer confidence. The Chinese market’s plateauing this month is largely noise, though the country’s new plans to halve subsidies and tax EVs at a reduced rate from January 2026 will bring some demand into November and December to round out Q4 more positively.

Connor Watts, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Fluence secures Europe’s largest ESS project
   US-based system integrator Fluence has secured LEAG’s 1GW/4GWh energy storage project in Germany, Europe’s largest ESS deployment, underscoring that success in the market hinges on delivering complete projects rather than just hardware. While Chinese players dominate the hardware segment, Fluence prevailed through local compliance expertise, long-term partnerships, financial strength, and alignment with local economic transition goals. In contrast, Chinese competitors faced regulatory unfamiliarity, grid access challenges, and liquidity constraints. 
   

2. Korean and Japanese manufacturers poised to dominate North America’s ESS market
   Korean and Japanese manufacturers are set to capture the next wave of growth in North America’s ESS market as Chinese cell makers struggle amid ongoing trade tensions. Industry sources report that Samsung SDI is close to signing a 30 GWh ESS cell supply deal with Tesla, delivering 10 GWh annually, while LG Energy Solution, which secured a contract with Tesla in July, is negotiating to expand its ESS cell supply to 30 GWh. These developments underscore a strategic shift towards Korean and Japanese suppliers as reliability and trade stability become critical factors for large-scale ESS projects.
   

3. Nvidia highlights ESS as key to next-gen AI data centers
   Nvidia’s recent whitepaper on AI data centers’ (AIDC) 800V power supply highlights the critical role of battery energy storage systems (ESS) in next-generation AIDC construction. Demand for ESS in AIDC applications is surging, driven by the need to stabilize and smooth the impact of high-intensity AI training loads on the grid. Under its Two-Tier Energy Storage architecture, ESS deployed outside the DC will mitigate grid stress and enhance operational resilience. The integration of ESS in AIDCs is no longer a future trend—it is rapidly emerging as a major growth driver for the industry.
   

What do our analysts say?

The US ESS decoupling from China is accelerating, with the recent “one-year truce” between Washington and Beijing likely serving as a transitional phase for deeper separation. This period presents both challenges and opportunities: North America aims to localize, secure, and de-risk its supply chain, while China seeks to diversify markets and forge new cross-regional alliances. Korean manufacturers such as Samsung SDI and LG ES are ramping up US investments, expanding from plant construction to downstream sales.

Walter Zhang, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. China’s battery cell costs lead global market, driven by vertical integration
   Battery cell production costs in China remain substantially lower than in Western countries. Fastmarkets estimates the cost of an NCM 811 prismatic cell made in China was approximately 20% cheaper than the equivalent cell made in Hungary, and 46% cheaper than if the same cell was made in the United States. In China, vertical integration has proven to be key in driving down battery costs. 
   

2. China leads solid-state battery race
   China continues to set the pace in solid-state battery research, with leading companies such as BYD, Chery Auto, SAIC, CALB, and CATL all targeting commercial-scale solid-state production by 2027. The transition from liquid to solid electrolyte has been pivotal in surpassing the 1,000km range milestone for electric vehicles. Over the last 10 years, Western automakers stalled and delayed EV research and adoption, further investing in internal combustion engines (ICEs), whilst their Chinese counterparts invested heavily in solid-state research.
   

3. Western battery manufacturing faces cost challenges amid dependence on Chinese supply chains
   As the West develops its own battery manufacturing capacity, China remains heavily involved in the supply of the essential components for battery manufacture. Western cell costs are already much higher than those in China, even when the raw materials are supplied at competitive Chinese market prices. A full decoupling from Chinese battery component supply chains would make Western manufacturers even less competitive than their Chinese counterparts.
   

What do our analysts say?

There is the increasing realization in Europe that EV transition without China is feasibly impossible. Within Europe, we are seeing a growing trend of cooperation and partnerships, moving away from a more adversarial tone. Across the Atlantic, in the United States, the hostile political climate to Chinese manufacturing makes partnerships increasingly unlikely. Whilst the United States initially led EV adoption with Tesla, such companies may find themselves eating the dust if they are not able to keep up with China’s ambitious solid-state plans.

Luke Sweeney, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Chinese lithium prices soar amid mining uncertainty
   The surge in Chinese lithium salt prices and spodumene prices continued into mid-August due to the possibility that more lithium mining operations in China may have to halt production while new mining plans and permits are agreed with the authorities. Carbonate prices climbed to a high of 87,000 yuan per tonne from June’s low of 59,500 per tonne, a rise of 46%. China’s hydroxide price rose 42% to 79,500 yuan per tonne from 56,000 yuan per tonne in July. Spodumene peaked at $1,027.50 per tonne, up 68.4% from June’s low of $610 per tonne. Seaborne China, Japan, Korea hydroxide prices climbed to $9.50 per kg from $7.95 per kg in late August.
   

2. Lithium prices dip as speculators and producers cash in
   While CJK prices have held up, Chinese salt prices and spodumene have retreated. Carbonate prices have pulled back to 72,550 yuan per tonne, hydroxide to 74,000 yuan per tonne, and spodumene to $835 per tonne. The pullback occurred due to profit-taking by speculators on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) and producers looking to take advantage of higher prices after what has been a tough time for producers.
   

3. Commodity market dynamics hint at potential lithium price stability
   The price pattern of rally followed by profit-taking/producer selling and consolidation is what you would expect in any commodity market. Given there are seven more mines that may face temporary production halts while they obtain the right permits, there could be more room for price increases or at least stability. Any loss in production will also help draw down lithium inventories that have built up over the past few years.
   

What do our analysts say?

The pullback in Chinese lithium prices seems normal market behaviour. All eyes are now on the fate of the other seven Chinese mines being scrutinised. More cutbacks will help tighten the supply-demand balance and prompt the use of inventories, which could underpin prices. We expect continued price instability in the near term with news about China’s production set to hold centre stage.

William Adams, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Seaborne cobalt prices steady with limited growth
   Prices in the seaborne market remained relatively flat with limited upward momentum on the standard grade cobalt metal market.
   

2. US aims to secure $500M in cobalt for defense stockpiles
   The US is seeking to acquire up to $500 million worth of cobalt over five years to bolster its defense stockpiles and reduce reliance on foreign sources, particularly China. The material would be in cut cathodes or round form sourced from four named brands.
   

3. China’s cobalt imports decline amid DRC export ban
   July trade data showed another decline in cobalt hydroxide imports into China to feed refineries. However, given that exports from the DRC remain banned a greater month-on-month fall might have been expected. This indicates that there are still some units available to feed Chinese refineries but that these are limited compared to typical monthly availability of material.
   

What do our analysts say?

The sequential drop in Chinese cobalt hydroxide imports was not as great as might have been expected indicating that some material remains available. However, with typical lead times of around three months we expect lower import volumes in the months ahead as the DRC’s export ban bites. The ban is set to expire on September 22 so even if the DRC allows exports to resume later in the month new feed is unlikely to arrive in China before early 2026. It is therefore likely that refinery feed will tighten further over Q4 supporting prices.

Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Nickel prices stagnate amid weak market fundamentals
   Weak market fundamentals are keeping the nickel price rangebound on either side of the $15,000 per tonne level. The LME nickel cash price averaged $14,909 per tonne in August 0.8% lower than in July.
   

2. Focus shifts to nickel production cuts in China and Indonesia
   There have been significant production cuts outside of China and Indonesia in the past two years, but the focus is now on cuts in the two largest producers of refined nickel to accelerate the market’s rebalancing.
   

3. Indonesia tightens oversight on mining amid civil unrest
   In Indonesia there is rising government oversight of the industry, through mine permit issuance, rising royalties and greater environmental oversight. Moreover, there has been some civil unrest in August, although not directly mining-related.
   

What do our

analysts say?

The nickel market remains in significant surplus due to continued oversupply, a situation that has persisted since 2022, leading to falling nickel prices. With the market looking at another significant surplus this year, it is difficult to see any scope for an improvement in pricing. For prices to improve, there needs to be greater supply discipline in China and Indonesia given the scale of production cuts outside of these two countries in recent years.

Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Chinese manganese sulfate market stagnates with limited activity
   The manganese sulfate spot market remained quiet in China through August with limited liquidity. Prices were rangebound throughout the month.
   

2. pCAM market slows as buyers rely on long-term contracts
   Buyers in the pCAM market are well covered by long-term contract volumes with little need to dip into the spot market, particularly given the seasonal slowdown in July and August seen in China.
   

3. Chinese HPMSM operating rates rise in anticipation of demand surge
   Chinese operating rates at HPMSM processing sites rose to 33% in July as producers prepared for potential increased buying ahead of a pickup in demand in September and October. Despite this gain, utilization rates have averaged 30% January-July 2025.
   

What do our analysts say?

The battery-grade manganese market was relatively quiet through August, as typically seen during the summer months. Spot demand and liquidity have been slow with prices for ex-works mainland China manganese sulfate now rangebound since the first half of May.

Rob Searle, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. US synthetic graphite imports shift away from China amid tariffs
   US synthetic graphite imports from China are down 41% year on year in the first seven months of the year despite an overall gain of 9% in total US synthetic graphite imports in that same period. Countries such as France South Korea Spain and Indonesia were the largest beneficiaries of this shift in trade with most of the imports. Synthetic graphite remains one of the most tariff-impacted battery materials due to its lack of reciprocal tariff exemptions. This trend in US imports is likely to continue as US active anode anti-dumping tariffs impact synthetic anodes made by Chinese companies or using Chinese synthetic graphite regardless of the country it is made. 
   

2. Spherical graphite prices rise on strong anode sector demand
   Spherical graphite and synthetic precursor prices continued to make gains across the month of August with support from year-on-year growth in demand from the active anode sector in China over the first half of the year.
   

3. Flake graphite prices struggle amid weak steel demand
   Flake pricing on the other hand continues to feel the impact of lower steel demand in 2025 amid declines in Asian and European production in the first seven months of the year. Expectations among market participants are that production in China will continue to decline through the end of the year and continue to weigh on overall global production.
   

What do our analysts say?

Battery graphite prices have been making consistent gains in the last two months amid indications of strong growth in demand from the Chinese active anode sector and the focus that these markets have in US and Chinese trade tensions. Overall market participants are hopeful that the traditionally slow summer seasons starting to end will lead to increased liquidity in the markets but the overall abundance in global inventories will remain a weight on prices. 

Andrew Saucer, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Black powder trial shipments clear Chinese customs
   Since China legalized black mass imports on August 1 the market has entered a trial phase. Companies like CRRG and CNGR have imported small cargoes—20 and 25 tonnes respectively—not to scale operations but to test regulatory procedures and logistics. Only high-quality black mass or “black powder” can be imported according to the national standard so the impact on black mass prices has so far been limited.
   

2. Recycling sector struggles with overcapacity and tight feedstock supply
   Weak recycling fundamentals with many running at losses. There is an overcapacity for shredding and refining which has caused tight supply of scrap battery and black mass feedstock. Bigger recyclers can afford to pay top prices for feedstock to keep running but mid-sized and smaller companies are running at 50% or even 30% utilization rates. The lower the capacity the worse the losses but companies will fight until the bitter end to avoid incurring greater costs from halting production.
   

3. Battery recycling faces financial strain, leading to market consolidation
   Market consolidation is expected if companies continue to run at losses. As financial pressure deepens battery recyclers are beginning to shut down or scale back operations. In North America Ascend Elements returned a $164 million DOE grant and downsized its Kentucky project while Aleon Metals filed for bankruptcy. Li-Cycle also sought bankruptcy protection putting its Rochester hub at risk. Europe has seen similar disruption: SungEel Hitech cancelled its Gera facility in Germany Ecobat is selling sites in Germany and Austria and Northvolt filed for bankruptcy.
   

What do our analysts say?

Overcapacity for recycling in comparison to feedstock availability has pushed up feedstock prices which is problematic when battery metal prices are so low and is causing a prolonged period of difficulty for many recyclers.

Julia Harty, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Chinese EV sales strong despite BYD’s PHEV decline and adjusted target
   Chinese EV sales growth for August has remained strong but is likely being dragged down by a few factors. BYD appears to be the main large company falling victim to China’s waning enthusiasm for PHEVs, as while its BEV sales grew 34% YoY relative to last year, its PHEV sales fell a massive 23%. This trend continues to worsen for Chinese PHEV makers. August was also the second month in a row that saw BYD’s EV sales grow less than 1% YoY, as sales converged with what it saw in 2024. The company has reportedly reduced its internal 2025 sales guidance from 5.5 million to 4.6 million vehicles.
   

2. UK EV market hits record 38% penetration in August
   The UK new EV market saw a record 38% EV penetration in August as vehicles running via an electric drivetrain (BEV+PHEV+HEV) overtook petrol vehicle sales for the first time, despite HEVs losing market share relative to 2024. BEVs took 26.5% market share, up from 22.6% in August last year, while PHEVs doubled their market share from 6.8% to 11.8%.
   

3. Lyten to resume cell deliveries in Q1 2026, retains key Northvolt leadership
   Northvolt successor Lyten has announced it plans to resume cell deliveries at its newly acquired facilities from Q1 2026, allowing it to generate some revenue while it decides next steps. As part of this, it has announced changes to its European leadership team and has retained many of Northvolt’s recent additions like Matthias Arleth and Markus Danglemaier with the aim of providing continuity to employees and customers alike.
   

What do our analysts say?

EV sales remain very strong globally for the month of August, though the US and China are showing signs of weakening into the fourth quarter of this year. While the Chinese market is suffering from weakening PHEV sales weighing down unit volumes, the US faces more structural demand issues which will become apparent from October, especially once consumer subsidies have been eliminated. The silver lining is that – globally at least – the US isn’t as important to battery demand growth as China or Europe, both of which continue to go from strength to strength.

Connor Watts, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Cell manufacturers report mixed results, ESS growth outpaces EVs
   Since August, leading cell manufacturers have been releasing their half-year and Q2 financial reports, revealing a mixed picture. Tesla and several Japanese and Korean players reported varying degrees of sales declines and losses, while Chinese companies continued their strong growth momentum. Notably, the growth rate of the ESS segment has far outpaced that of EVs across almost all manufacturers. 
   

2. Korean cell makers and Tesla boost US energy storage investments
   To counter the impact of OBBB on the US EV industry, as well as the slowdown in US EV demand, Korea’s three major cell makers—LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, and SK On—are ramping up their investments in the US energy storage market. At the same time, Tesla has announced plans to begin domestic production of LFP storage cells within this year. Outside of Tesla, most US-based companies remain focused on system integration, with cells still largely sourced from overseas, particularly from China.
   

3. Tesla storage fire highlights need for robust safety standards
   On August 30, a Tesla energy storage project in Monterey County, California, caught fire, once again underscoring the critical importance of safety in the energy storage sector. Thermal runaway remains one of the leading causes of fires in energy storage products. As a result, the establishment of robust safety standards has become a key focus across the industry. EU Regulation 2023/1542, which comes into full effect on August 18, 2025, requires that stationary battery energy storage systems (SBESS) be accompanied by technical documentation demonstrating their safety during operation.
   

What do our analysts say?

With the rapid growth of global energy storage demand—particularly in China, Europe, the United States, the Middle East, and Australia—the entire energy storage supply chain, from raw materials to battery cells, has seen a significant rebound in pricing. In China, for example, average cell prices have risen by around 10–15%, yet demand continues to outpace supply. Leading manufacturers are maintaining high-capacity utilization, a trend expected to persist through year-end. At the same time, Tesla and Korean cell makers are actively expanding in the North American storage market, ramping up investment in LFP cell R&D and production to counterbalance China’s overwhelming industrial scale and cost advantage, thereby ensuring a degree of independence.

Walter Zhang, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. July lithium carbonate prices soar amid speculation and market rumors
   July saw a dramatic rally in lithium carbonate prices, surging from 62,000 to 80,000 yuan per tonne in China, driven not by fundamentals but by speculative fervor on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX). Futures contracts hit daily upper limits, prompting traders to scramble for spot cargoes and pushing spodumene prices to $880 per tonne. The rally was fueled by rumors of supply disruptions, Chinese government calls to end irrational price wars and bullish macro sentiment.
   

2. Speculative bubble bursts as lithium prices plunge on GFEX limits
   GFEX’s abrupt imposition of daily position limits on non-commercial (more speculative) futures participants triggered a sharp reversal. Futures prices plummeted to about 73,000 yuan per tonne, dragging spot lithium carbonate prices down by over 6,000 yuan per tonne. Spodumene followed suit, falling to $700–760 per tonne. Trading activity stalled as buyers and sellers retreated, wary of further volatility. The speculative bubble burst, revealing a market still grappling with oversupply and weak downstream demand, particularly in the nickel-cobalt-manganese battery sector.
   

3. Market shifts persist amid lithium price volatility and regulatory scrutiny
   Despite the price rollercoaster, structural market shifts continued. Chinese producers withheld lithium hydroxide for conversion into carbonate, chasing higher margins. Australian and Canadian miners ramped up spodumene output in the second quarter, with most remaining above break-even despite falling realized prices. Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny in China and Europe added complexity: Chinese mining permits were questioned and EU proposals to classify lithium salts as reproductive toxins sparked industry backlash, threatening investment in Europe’s lithium value chain.
   

What do our analysts say?

The lithium market’s July surge was a masterclass in sentiment-driven volatility. While futures activity can catalyse short-term price movements, beneath the surface demand remains tepid, inventories high and buyers cautious, underscoring a disconnect between price action and market reality. We expect continued price instability in the near term with potential for further corrections unless meaningful supply disruptions materialise.

Paul Lusty, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Seaborne metal prices steady amid ample supply in July
   Seaborne metal price movements remained relatively stable through July with ample material available.
   

2. Glencore and CMOC boost cobalt output amid ongoing export ban
   Glencore and CMOC report strong cobalt mined production figures as the cobalt hydroxide export ban enters the 6th month. CMOC produced 30,659 tonnes of cobalt in Q2, relatively flat quarter on quarter but up 6% year on year. Glencore produced 8,900 tonnes of cobalt from its DRC-based operations, up 1% quarter on quarter and 5% year on year.
   

3. China sees first drop in cobalt hydroxide imports, Q4 tightness looms
   June trade statistics showed the first decline in cobalt hydroxide volumes arriving in China to feed refineries. Inventory drawdown began in June with tightness expected in intermediate availability in Q4.
   

What do our analysts say?

Trade statistics for cobalt hydroxide imports into China in June showed the first drop in material following the export ban enforcement in late February. With a typical lead time of around 3 months, we expected June to be the first month of lower volumes. Cobalt hydroxide imports fell 62% in June and are expected to remain at low levels through to the end of December or early 2026. Should the export ban end as planned on September 22, the end of the year is the earliest we can expect to see new feed into the Chinese market from the DRC.

Rob Searle, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. LME nickel prices dip 1.5% in July, extending downward trend
   Despite a feeble mid-month rally, the LME nickel cash price ended July down by 1.5% at $14,080 per tonne. This prolongs the multi-year trend of declining prices.
   

2. July nickel price spikes driven by market sentiment, not fundamentals
   There were some bouts of rising prices during July. These rises were due more to temporary increases in risk appetite or greater macroeconomic optimism than to any nickel-related fundamentals.
   

3. Indonesian nickel smelter cutbacks hint at supply discipline
   There were reports of some cutbacks at small nickel pig iron smelters in Indonesia. Since the nickel market’s underlying issue is overproduction due to a surge in Indonesian capacity, any indication that the country’s producers are beginning to take a more disciplined approach to supply could be seen as a mild positive for the market.
   

What do our

analysts say?

The nickel market’s fundamental issue is oversupply, with the market in surplus since 2022. As a result, the LME nickel cash price has been on a downtrend for several years.
With the nickel market facing another significant surplus this year, far more supply cutbacks will be needed to return the market to a semblance of balance. It is hard to see how this will happen without Indonesia-based producers taking a greater part in this supply discipline.

Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. China’s manganese sulfate market stays quiet with stable July prices
   The spot manganese sulfate market in China was quiet through July with limited liquidity. Prices were rangebound throughout the month with pCAM buyers well covered by contract volumes.
   

2. China’s NCM pCAM production rises in June amid sluggish summer demand
   NCM pCAM production in China rose in June but overall demand and production remain slow during the seasonally low summer period.
   

3. China restricts export of LMFP production technology
   China imposed export restrictions on LMFP production technology.
   

What do our analysts say?

July remained quiet in the manganese sulfate spot market and we expect more of the same in August. When we move into September and the final quarter of the year, we expect to see a pickup in buying, but how impactful this will be on prices remains uncertain.

Rob Searle, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. US imposes 160% tariffs on Chinese graphite anode materials, prices surge 6.6%
   The US Department of Commerce enacted anti-dumping duties of 93.5% on anode-grade graphite imports from China following petitions from the American Active Anode Material Producers association. These, alongside other tariffs, bring the US rate for graphite anode materials to 160%, with the possibility of higher rates at the final determination hearing in December. Spherical graphite prices moved 6.6% higher, ending a month-and-a-half-long period of stagnancy following the announcement. 
   

2. Graphite flake prices hit record lows amid Chinese steel output speculation
   Graphite flake prices dropped to fresh all-time lows amid speculation that government mandates would lead to a reduction in Chinese crude steel output during the second half of the year. While there has been no official order confirming the rumors, the speculation has impacted steel futures exchanges and poses another possible weak spot for graphite during an already challenging 2025.
   

3. US synthetic graphite imports face delays and higher costs amid tariffs
   Another 90-day pause delayed a potential rise in synthetic graphite imports into the US, which are not exempt from reciprocal tariffs unlike natural graphite, which is exempt as it is a critical mineral. The US lacks domestic production of synthetic graphite, so it is expected that synthetic graphite consumers in the US will bear the brunt of the cost.
   

What do our analysts say?

Graphite markets adjusted in different directions as changing trade policy and concerns surrounding demand from the steel market provided the stagnant markets with information to adjust to. Overall, the market remains oversupplied with low levels of trading across the different grades of graphite. Fastmarkets long-term forecast expects prices to bottom this year but predicts the oversupply weighing on the market will last through the next few years. 

Andrew Saucer, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. China’s black mass imports resume slowly amid quality standards and market caution
   Chinese black mass imports off to a slow start. The Chinese black mass import ban was lifted on August 1 for high-quality black mass that meets the “National Standard.” The market is awaiting news of shipments that have cleared customs checks, and some Chinese buyers are cautiously waiting for feedback before buying themselves. South Korean black mass refiners are the main competitors for high-quality black mass, but even US refiners have concerns about the potential impact on global black mass prices in the longer term.
   

2. Southeast Asia offloads sub-spec lack mass to South Korea
   Southeast Asia destocking black mass that didn’t meet the Chinese specification. Southeast Asia had stockpiled black mass in preparation to sell to China after the import ban was lifted, but this black mass is rumored to be below the specification required in China. There are reports that this is now being sold off to South Korea. Some market participants believe the volume of black mass that could meet the National Standard is fairly low and therefore the impact will be small.
   

3. Recyclers struggle with losses amid low lithium prices and tight competition
   Recycling often loss making under current market conditions. There are still many reports of recyclers running at losses in the current market with low lithium prices and tight competition for scrap battery and black mass feedstock. Higher cobalt prices caused by the DRC export ban have brought some relief, but some companies would rather operate at a smaller loss than pause operations, which would cause greater losses.
   

What do our analysts say?

The big story in black mass at the moment is the potential for China to soak up all the highest quality black mass now that the import ban has been lifted. We expect a slow start with cautious Chinese buyers but for Chinese imports to ramp up in the longer term.

Julia Harty, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. China’s EV market thrives with strong domestic sales and surging exports
   EV demand growth in China continues on pace through June’s predicted seasonal weakness. Domestic sales grew nearly 15% year-over-year to just over 1 million vehicles sold through the month, slowing marginally from earlier this year but remaining well within expectations. Chinese EV exports have continued to grow massively, seeing nearly 100% year-over-year growth in the first half of this year to over 1 million.
   

2. Li Auto relaunches Li i8 amid fierce competition in China’s EV market
   In direct contrast to Xiaomi’s launch of its new SU7 model last month, Li Auto has decided to relaunch its newest entry into the Chinese BEV market, the Li i8, after just one week following poor customer acceptance. All this shows how cutthroat the competition within China’s EV industry continues to be.
   

3. European EV sales rise, but France lags
   European EV sales continue to grow with an emphasis on German and UK markets, though France has shown little sign of reversing its downward trend resulting from its dilution of subsidies. Eastern European markets continue to prefer PHEVs to BEVs, primarily due to their lower cost but also subpar infrastructure making the proposition of all-electric more difficult to commit to.
   

What do our analysts say?

EV sales are moving as expected through the usual period of June’s seasonal weakness, with China and Western Europe continuing strongly despite the global macroeconomic uncertainty. The US continues to be the major point of concern within the EV market, and while this isn’t likely to change any time soon, the sales period leading up to September may provide needed respite before year-end as consumers buy ahead of subsidy expiry.

Connor Watts, Fastmarkets

Key points

1. Lyten acquires Europe’s largest BESS facility
   In July 2025, Lyten acquired Northvolt’s Dwa ESS facility in Gdansk, Poland – Europe’s largest battery energy storage systems (BESS) manufacturing site, spanning 25,000 square meters with a capacity of 6 GWh, expandable to over 10 GWh. This acquisition is a pivotal moment for Europe’s energy storage supply chain, restoring a critical production hub that had gone dormant due to Northvolt Systems’ strategic review and divestitures. 
   

2. Chinese policies and rising costs drive energy storage cell prices up 10%
   Amid the Chinese government’s push to reduce industry overcapacity and phase out outdated production, energy storage cell prices have surged by over 10%, driven by rising raw material costs. The mainstream LFP 314Ah cell now exceeds USD 41/KWh for the domestic market.
   

3. Tesla-LG deal and domestic production signal shift in US energy storage under OBBB
   The recent $4.3 billion LFP battery deal between Tesla and LG Energy, along with Tesla’s move to manufacture energy storage cells domestically, highlights a growing shift in the US energy storage landscape. These developments are early signs of the impact from the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), signed into law on July 4, 2025, which introduces sweeping reforms across energy, manufacturing and tax policy.
   

What do our analysts say?

With the rapid deployment of solar and wind power in recent years, clean energy has evolved from a supplementary source to a core component of the global electricity supply—signaling a level of saturation in generation capacity. As the “power generation” side matures, attention is shifting toward “power storage,” which is poised to become the next major growth driver. This trend will be further accelerated by the rise of AI-driven data centers (AI DCs), whose soaring electricity demand will intensify the need for robust energy storage infrastructure. .

Walter Zhang, Fastmarkets