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According to Carlos Loureiro, president of Brazil’s National Institute of Steel Distributors (INDA), the outlook for Brazil’s steel market next year will only be positive if anti-dumping measures come into force as planned and if the deadlines set by the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) are respected.
“It will only be a pessimistic scenario if nothing happens and all anti-dumping measures are postponed for political reasons — that is, considering broader aspects of Brazil’s relationship with China and the possibility that the government may ultimately lack the resolve to implement them,” Loureiro said during the association’s monthly briefing on Thursday December 18.
INDA is betting on an improvement in market conditions following the approval of the anti-dumping measures listed above.
Despite forecasts from Brazilian steel association Aço Brasil, which estimates that domestic steel production in 2026 will be 2.2% lower than in 2025 and warns of further increases in imports next year, Loureiro said there is still reason for concern.
“Given the scenario we are seeing, with several countries adopting measures [to protect themselves from imports], trade diversion will increase, and our concern is that this material will end up in Brazil,” André Johannpeter, chairman of the board of Gerdau and chairman of the board of directors of Aço Brasil, said during an exclusive press conference on Tuesday December 16.
Aço Brasil estimates that imports of rolled steel products will rise by 10% in 2026 compared with 2025, reaching 6.324 million tonnes. Total steel imports, meanwhile, are expected to increase by 3.9% year on year.
The weekly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil import, cfr main ports South America was $515-530 per tonne on Friday December 12, up by $5 per tonne from $510-530 per tonne a week earlier.
Fastmarkets’ monthly price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil domestic monthly, exw Brazil was 3,650-3,950 Reais ($673-728) per tonne on Friday, down by 285 Reais at the bottom of the range and down by 225 Reais at the top of the range from 3,935-4,175 Reais per tonne a month earlier.
“Today, if Brazil does nothing, before long we will be handing over our entire metal-mechanical and steel industry to the Chinese,” Loureiro said.
Purchases in November fell by 7.5% month on month, totaling 317,800 tonnes compared with 343,500 tonnes in October. Year on year, purchases increased by 7.5% from 295,600 tonnes.
Sales of flat steel products in November dropped by 12% compared with October, totaling 311,900 tonnes versus 354,200 tonnes. Compared with November last year, when sales totaled 296,800 tonnes, volumes increased by 5.1%.
In absolute terms, inventories in November rose by 0.6% month on month, reaching 1,079,700 tonnes compared with 1,073,700 tonnes in October. Inventory turnover closed the month at 3.5 months.
For December 2025, INDA’s affiliated companies expect purchases to fall by 10% and sales to decline by 14% compared with November 2025.
Imports rose by 5.9% in November compared with the previous month, totaling 265,900 tonnes, up from 251,100 tonnes. Compared with the same month last year, imports increased by 29.0%.
The figures above include imports of plate, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, hot-dipped galvanized, electrogalvanized, pre-painted steel and Galvalume.
Galvalume® is a registered trademark of BIEC International.
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