China’s ‘special action plan for carbon reduction’ likely to shrink demand for traditional steelmaking raw materials

On Friday June 7, the NDRC and related departments unveiled the plan, which sets out some specific targets for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the steel industry by the end of 2030.

The action plan sets several major targets of the steel industry:

• By the end of 2025, the energy consumption per tonne of product produced using blast furnace and converter processes in the iron and steel industry will be reduced by more than 1% respectively compared with 2023.
• By the end of 2025, the energy consumption used to produce 1 tonne of steel will be reduced by more than 2% compared with 2023 and the use of self-generated waste heat and pressure will be increased by at least 3% compared with 2023.
• From 2024 to 2025, the steel industry will reduce its standard coal use by about 20 million tonnes and carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by about 5,300 tonnes.
• By the end of 2030, the energy efficiency of major processes in the iron and steel industry will be further improved.

To achieve those targets, the NDRC and related departments will encourage the steel industry to increase the proportion of short-process electric-arc furnace steelmaking and accelerate the upgrading of energy-intensive equipment.

Market participants said there was unlikely to be much visible impact in 2024, but the action plan will ultimately have a negative impact on demand for Chinese raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal in the longer term.

“It will be hard to see the impact on coking coal in the short term, [but] demand for coking coal is highly likely to shrink [in the longer term],” a trader source in Northern China said.

Another trader source in the north, based in Shanxi province, said there would be negative effect on demand for steelmaking raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal.

“Because the crude steel volumes produced by EAFs will replace some volumes [currently] produced by blast furnaces – based on the guidance in the [NDRC action] plan – demand for iron ore and coking coal will be [reduced],” the source said.

Sam Li Xiaoyu in Shanghai contributed to this report.

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