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A survey by the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing, published on Tuesday January 6, shows that while companies continue to engage with voluntary carbon markets, recent growth in activity has been concentrated in direct offtake agreements rather than in traded carbon credit markets, which remain well below earlier highs.
The survey of 225 global companies with annual revenues above $1 billion found that the traded voluntary carbon credit market was valued at just over $500 million in 2024, down from more than $2 billion in 2021, with the decline largely driven by lower traded volumes.
By contrast, the annual value of direct offtake agreements for carbon removals exceeded $7 billion through November 2025, up from $2.6 billion in 2024, underscoring differences between spot market activity and delivery-linked contracting, the report said.
The findings point to an increasingly uneven pattern of corporate participation across the voluntary carbon market.
While most current buyers expect to increase carbon credit purchases over time, recent momentum has been driven primarily by long-dated offtake agreements, which typically span multiple years and are structured to secure future supply.
More than three-quarters of offtake volumes to date have been concentrated among a small group of large buyers, though companies purchasing smaller volumes have also contributed to growth, particularly in carbon removals.
The report treats offtake agreements as an indicator of corporate engagement, noting that such contracts can offer greater certainty around delivery than spot market purchases.
Survey responses indicate that carbon credits continue to account for a relatively small share of corporate decarbonization plans.
On average, current and future buyers expect around 65% of the emissions reductions needed to meet net-zero targets to come from actions within their own value chains, including operational changes and supply-chain measures. A further 28% is expected to come from grid or other forms of decarbonization.
Carbon removals are expected to address around 7% of remaining emissions, according to the survey.
Progress on internal decarbonization was cited by nearly one-third of current buyers as the most important factor influencing future carbon credit volumes, more than double the share that identified pricing as the primary driver.
Companies planning to enter the voluntary carbon market in future reported significantly lower certainty around expected purchase volumes and greater sensitivity to pricing and regulatory developments.
Around 24% of future buyers globally cited pricing as the most influential factor shaping future carbon credit purchases, while regulatory and accounting developments were cited more frequently by European respondents.
More than half of future buyers described their visibility on future volumes as “low” or “very low,” compared with just over a quarter of current buyers, the report said.
Morgan Stanley noted that ongoing revisions to guidance from bodies such as the Science Based Targets initiative and the GHG Protocol could further influence corporate demand patterns.
Reputational risk remains a significant consideration for companies participating in voluntary carbon markets, though it does not appear to be preventing participation.
Almost half of current buyers said participation in voluntary carbon markets ranks among the top reputational risks their companies manage. But more than 80% said the benefits of using carbon credits probably or easily outweigh these risks.
Among non-buyers, just 7% cited project or claim risk as the main reason for not participating. Instead, 39% said they expect to fully decarbonize within their own value chains without using credits, while 31% said they do not plan to set a net-zero target.
Despite widespread references to carbon credits in corporate emissions disclosures, particularly among large-cap companies, the survey suggests that voluntary carbon markets remain small relative to corporate decarbonization needs.
The data indicates that corporate participation is expanding selectively, with growth concentrated in delivery-linked offtake structures rather than supporting a broad recovery in traded carbon credit markets, Morgan Stanley said.
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