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Key takeaways:
US and Chinese investment are increasingly vying for the same mines, refineries and battery-material projects, turning balance sheets into the new front line in a strategic supply-chain contest that could shape production, pricing and technological leadership for decades.
JPMorgan’s recent $1.5 trillion Security & Resiliency Initiative, which includes a $10 billion direct equity commitment, shows how Wall Street – alongside agencies such as the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Department of Defense (DoD) – is increasingly financing strategic supply chains.
But it goes beyond one bank. Specialized funds such as TechMet Ltd. and Orion Resource Partners are taking stakes in lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth projects around the world.
Governments are also putting real capital on the line. The DFC, DoD and allied governments are co-investing alongside private funds, turning state-backed equity into a tool to secure supply chains.
Domestically, projects such as MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine in California and proposals at Thacker Pass in Nevada show how hybrid public private strategies are securing supply for electric vehicles (EVs), defense technologies and the broader energy transition.
Internationally, Washington is leveraging allied partnerships: just last month, the US and Australia signed a Critical Minerals Framework pledging at least $1 billion each toward mining and processing projects over the next six months, part of a broader $8.5 billion pipeline.
Even so, the challenge is steep. A Carnegie Endowment analysis projects that even in the most optimistic scenario, the US would only be able to meet projected 2035 demand for zinc and molybdenum — still requiring large imports of lithium, nickel, graphite and copper.
Beijing’s approach remains formidable. Policy banks like the China Development Bank and Export Import Bank of China, along with state owned enterprises, secure critical minerals supply chains through long term offtake agreements, infrastructure packages and strategic investments abroad.
These loans often bundle infrastructure and long-term commitments, giving Beijing durable influence over supply chains.
By underwriting risk, tolerating long development timelines and coordinating policy across ministries, China has created a financial ecosystem that gives it a lasting head start.
Even as Western investors and governments catch up, China remains deeply embedded in the mid- and downstream of many supply chains.
In Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, project valuations are rising fast as Chinese and US/allied capital chase the same assets. Capital is no longer neutral; its source, structure and conditions now determine which projects move forward.
US-aligned projects gain government-backed financing, export-credit guarantees, coalition support and regulatory facilitation, improving execution and downstream access even if the cost of capital is higher.
Chinese-backed projects, by contrast, get large, low-cost loans bundled with infrastructure and long-term offtake deals, offering speed and scale with fewer governance strings attached.
Many host governments hedge between these options, producing a bifurcated financing landscape where who writes the checks increasingly shapes the outcomes.
Project premiums are rising as competition for assets intensifies, while lead times are lengthening, particularly in jurisdictions with stricter ESG and permitting requirements.
Liquidity, hedging and offtake aren’t just following prices anymore – they’re following political alignment. Projects tied to the US or its allies get easier access to financing and contracts, while China-backed projects have their own fast-moving capital streams.
Geopolitics is now as important as geology in deciding who gets funded – and who is left waiting.
Financing isn’t just about mines – it drives what happens downstream too. Even with new mines coming online, refining, separation and battery or magnet production won’t happen without the right money behind it.
Investors and governments now weigh not just geology or commodity prices, but who is providing the capital, how reliable that capital is and what political strings come with it.
Get it wrong and projects stall or become costly stranded assets. Get it right and early movers in aligned ecosystems lock in financing, regulatory support, and long-term supply.
In short, capital has become a strategic instrument. Who controls the financing increasingly determines who controls the supply chain – from extraction to end use – and ultimately shapes the markets themselves.
Understanding these dynamics is now as critical as understanding the geology.
In Hotter Commodities, special correspondent Andrea Hotter covers some of the biggest stories impacting the natural resources sector. Read more coverage on our dedicated Hotter Commodities page here.