China’s space missions reached a record high in 2023, with 67 launches and 221 spacecraft deployed, according to the China National Space Administration (CNSA). The number of satellites in orbit has now reached 628 in China, while the global total stands at 7,560, based on the UCS Satellite Database.
Germanium is primarily used as a substrate for gallium arsenide solar cells, which are core to space photovoltaic technology.
Each standard satellite requires approximately 6,000 to 15,000 germanium wafers for high-efficiency solar cells, with larger satellites requiring about tens of thousands, according to industry sources.
“A huge demand for germanium wafers in satellites is expected, driven by the rising number of satellite launches. Moreover, the production process involves raw material loss, meaning the supply of germanium wafers won’t scale linearly with the availability of raw materials,” a market source told Fastmarkets.
Yunnan Germanium, which is a leading germanium and germanium product supplier, has an annual production capacity of 300,000 four-inch germanium wafers and 200,000 six-inch wafers, according to its 2023 annual report.
China has planned several satellite internet constellation projects, some of which have already entered the implementation phase. The total scale of these projects reaches 40,000 satellites, which are expected to contribute market demand for germanium in China, sources said.
The GW constellation, led by China Satellite Network Group, plans to launch 12,992 satellites, as indicated in International Telecommunication Union (ITU)’s data.
The “Qianfan (G60)” constellation, led by Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology, with a total scale exceeding 15,000 satellites, began its satellite launches in November 2019. The first 18 satellites were successfully launched in August 2024.
The G60 Constellation is expected to complete the launch of 108 satellites by the end of 2024, with 648 satellites providing regional network coverage to be launched by the end of 2025. More than 15,000 low Earth orbit satellites are expected to be launched by the end of 2030. The Honghu-3 constellation, which is led by Hongqing Technology, also plans to launch 10,000 satellites, according to ITU’s data.
Meanwhile, major satellite programs in other regions are also advancing. United States-based Starlink program has already launched more than 5,000 low-earth orbit satellites, according to the UCS Satellite Database.
China’s first commercial spaceport, Hainan commercial spaceport, also launched successfully on November 30, according to an announcement from the CNSA on December 1.
Downstream demand may rise across the board, albeit amid supply disruptions
In addition to its application in space solar cells, germanium is also an important material in the fields of infrared optics, fiber optic communications and semiconductors, according to sources.
The increase in germanium prices this year had been linked to rising demand for military infrared devices driven by escalating geopolitical conflicts, sources told Fastmarkets.
China implemented export controls on germanium-related items, which started from August 1, 2023, leading to a sharp decline in exports and a global supply chain disruption, with export levels yet to return to pre-control figures, according to Chinese customs data.
Germanium was listed among the top 10 priority materials that could face significant supply chain disruption, according to the UK Criticality Assessment published by the UK Critical Minerals Intelligence Centre on November 28, which focused on the vulnerability to supply disruption of minerals in an increasingly diversified UK economy.
Tighter restrictions on exports of several dual-use items, including licensing restrictions on germanium materials to the US were also announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce and came into effect on Tuesday.
China’s export restrictions have also led to an increase in germanium prices overseas, given that the country is a major supplier in the global market, sources said.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs Rotterdam, was $2,850-3,000 per kg on November 29, unchanged from November 27. The price had risen by about 97% from $1,400-1,550 per kg on August 2, 2023.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for germanium 99.999% Ge min, in-whs China was 18,000-19,000 yuan ($2,470-2,607) per kg on November 29, unchanged from a week earlier. The price had climbed by about 76.2% from 10,000-11,000 yuan per kg on June 7.
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