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The world’s largest cobalt producer, CMOC, confirmed to Fastmarkets that the additional 30 days will allow it to ship its full fourth-quarter volumes within the revised timeline, while another producer also indicated that the extension would enable completion of delayed shipments.
On Tuesday, the DRC added another 30 days to the deadline for exporting volumes allocated to miners for the fourth quarter of 2025 – which had already been rolled over to the end of the first quarter of 2026 – under the country’s new quota system.
Market participants said shipments from the DRC have so far been slower than expected, prompting the authorities to adjust the policy.
Olivier Masson, principal analyst at Fastmarkets, said the move was prompted by the current pace of exports.
“With relatively little material reportedly being shipped from the DRC, it was necessary for the government to act; otherwise, supply would have been even tighter,” he said.
Masson added that operational factors may also have contributed to the situation.
“It’s also probably the slow set-up for the government testing system that has caused this situation, although discrepancies between private and government cobalt content testing may also be a factor,” he said.
Some market participants said they expected the extension to put downward pressure on prices, given the potential increase in available volumes.
“Literally, it will be bearish news, equivalent to shipment volumes from three quarters – Q4 2025 along with Q1 plus Q2 2026,” a smelter source said.
But the source warned that the practical impact may be more limited.
“Don’t be too optimistic in practice. It’s still slow. Although Q2 exports may appear high from a policy perspective, this may not materialize in reality,” the source said.
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Other market participants pointed to subdued market sentiment, given the limited immediate price response.
“The market mood is a bit down. You see, Zhonglianjin has fallen a little,” a second smelter source said, referring to China’s cobalt metal futures prices on the Wuxi Zhonglianjin Exchange.
Traders also reported a lack of activity in the physical market, with uncertainty over near-term arrivals in China.
“There is uncertainty over how much material will arrive in China in the near term. Not much reaction so far – it mainly depends on the shipping timeline,” a trader said.
The trader added that weak downstream demand continues to weigh on the market.
“If downstream demand does not improve, prices cannot rise. The market is quiet now,” the trader said.
Overall, while the policy adjustment may help alleviate supply constraints in the near term, market participants said the effect will depend on the pace of actual shipments and the recovery in demand.
Fastmarkets’ daily price assessment for cobalt hydroxide 30% Co min, cif China was at $25.90-26.00 per lb on Wednesday, up by more than 350% from $5.60-5.75 per lb on February 18, 2025, ahead of DRC’s export ban on cobalt.
The DRC accounts for more than 70% of global mined cobalt supply. To curb oversupply, the government imposed an export ban between February and October 2025, before introducing the current quota system in October.
Sources told Fastmarkets in late March that less than half of the volumes allocated to miners for the fourth quarter of 2025 – later extended to the end of the first quarter of 2026 – may have been exported under the new system.
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