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Tighter supply from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has shifted the cobalt market from oversupply earlier in 2025 to a projected deficit next year, according to Fastmarkets analysts, driving increased demand for material sourced outside the DRC.
At the same time, prices for cobalt metal more than doubled in 2025, and prices for its feedstock – cobalt hydroxide – more than quadrupled.
The global cobalt market is projected to swing into a deficit next year, directly as a result of the DRC’s export restrictions that were imposed in February 2025, according to Olivier Masson, Fastmarkets’ principal battery raw materials analyst.
“It is the DRC export ban, followed by its quota system, that changed the cobalt market’s dynamics so quickly in 2025. Any follow-up action by the DRC government could have a significant impact on the market in 2026,” Masson said.
Cobalt is listed as a critical mineral by governments across the world due to its use in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, consumer electronics, medical sector, magnets, aerospace and military applications.
Looking at trade flows, the key route historically has been cobalt hydroxide flowing from the DRC to China for processing into metal and battery salts such as sulfate and tetroxide.
China has grown in the last 18 months to be the key cobalt metal supplier, due to its large refining capacity and domestic downstream supply chain for EVs and consumer electronics.
The exports of metal from China into the Netherlands, through the port of Rotterdam, mainly cater to the needs of European consumers.
These exports totaled 5,147 tonnes in 2024, up by 153% on the year, and caused prices to fall due to the oversupply of material available in the market.
The US remains among the key consumers of cobalt metal. In April, many critical minerals were exempted from freshly increased US import tariffs.
Cobalt metal shipments into the US from China avoided the 35% tariff on Chinese-origin material, because the cargo comprised Indonesia-origin cobalt routed through China.
From May onward, metal exports from China dwindled because hydroxide availability had dried up and metal refiners cut production rates. Prices increased within China to incentivize metal to remain in the country.
In theory, exports have been permitted from the DRC via a quota system since October 16. But Fastmarkets understands no material has left the country due to stricter regulatory measures and requirements for royalties to be prepaid and the system to be tested first with smaller volumes by a single producer.
A small number of trucks have been loaded and were awaiting the necessary certificates to enable them to leave in late December, Fastmarkets understands.
On December 23, the DRC’s minister of finance said that cobalt exports had resumed but did not disclose further information about the exporter, volumes nor the destination, according to local media reports.
Toward the end of 2025, consumers were trying to reduce their reliance on cobalt hydroxide, with forecasts of a constrained market until at least the end of 2027 when the DRC quota system is scheduled to conclude.
Consumers have increased inquiries for alternative sources of cobalt supply, seeking non-DRC cobalt feedstock, such as mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) or black mass.
Black mass is a cobalt-containing intermediate produced from the battery recycling process, with the main chemistries being lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) and nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM).
MHP, which is produced in Indonesia, the second-largest cobalt supplying country, is a product high in nickel and cobalt.
Fastmarkets analysts expect Indonesian cobalt-in-MHP production to reach approximately 67,500 tonnes in 2026, up by 145% from around 46,300 tonnes in 2025. They expect the supply of MHP from Indonesia to rise by around 21,200 tonnes (of cobalt contained) in 2026, with domestic refined supply expected to rise by 3,000 tonnes. The difference is expected to be exported to China, to feed refined production growth there.
“This increase in supply will not be sufficient to offset the drop in supply from the DRC, leaving the market in deficit in 2026,” Masson said.
Meanwhile, the shift toward black mass has resulted in cobalt payables for the material reaching 88-100% at the end of the year, because Chinese buyers have been sourcing recycled feedstock from South Korea. This is up from 70% at the midpoint in early 2025, before the DRC’s export ban.
Payables refer to the proportion that consumers pay of a benchmark price for a commodity, in this case the low end of Fastmarkets’ price index for standard grade cobalt.
Next year, the cobalt market is forecast to be at a supply deficit of 10,700 tonnes against a demand level of 292,300 tonnes, according to Fastmarkets analysts.
The DRC’s export quota system will restrict cobalt exports to 87,000 tonnes in both 2026 and 2027. The DRC government has declared they will build a strategic stockpile of 9,600 tonnes per year for use in domestic projects. The DRC has no operational cobalt refining capacity but announced plans to build a sulfate refinery, operational from 2030.
There is also the quota backlog of 18,125 tonnes from the fourth quarter of 2025, which has yet to be exported at the time of publication due to administrative hurdles.
News reports have indicated that the DRC will allow these volumes for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be ‘rolled over’ into 2026, but it was unclear whether the volumes will be spread across the entire year or be permitted to leave in January in their entirety.
Several factors could shift the cobalt market dynamics, according to Masson:
“We therefore expect additional material to reach China in the second quarter of 2026, representing the regular quota as well as the fourth quarter of 2025 quota backlog. This should alleviate the market tightness somewhat in the second quarter of 2026,” Masson said.
Another trend to watch in interest is recycled cobalt, which was not the case when prices remained low in an oversupplied market, according to Julia Harty, battery raw materials analytics team manager at Fastmarkets.
In 2025, total production of secondary cobalt metal equivalent worldwide was 30,000 tonnes. Fastmarkets analysts estimate this amount could 36,000 tonnes in 2026 and up to 102,000 tonnes in 2035.
Unless the DRC changes the quota system, the market is likely to see “a slow rally” which may speed up in the first quarter while the market grapples with consequences of their export restrictions, a trader said.
“We do not want the price to go completely mad, that would be destructive for demand, but the pipeline is drier every week”, a second trader told Fastmarkets. In their experience, consumers have been leaving more room for purchasing on the spot market, reducing the volumes locked into long-term supply agreements.
And the alloy-grade cobalt metal is expected to see renewed demand next year, according to some market participants.
The alloy grade, of higher purity compared to standard grade, is commonly used in aerospace, medical and defense sectors. It has maintained its premium above standard-grade cobalt throughout 2025.
The US’ stockpiling of critical metals was a key trend of 2025: in the second half of the year, a sub-tier of the US Department of Defense (War), the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), announced a major alloy-grade cobalt procurement, then canceled it.
So far, DLA’s interest in the market has supported sentiment amid existing tightness in supply.
Demand from the aerospace sector is expected to remain bullish next year due to aerospace parts shortages and record backlogs for airplane manufacturers, according to market sources.
“The cobalt market is the tightest it has ever been,” a third trader told Fastmarkets.
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