FranceAgriMer raises export forecast for soft wheat outside the EU

International shipments to increase to 10.6m tonnes

French state-backed farm agency FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the EU once again in its latest monthly outlook on Wednesday, January 18, while revising exports to within the EU lower.

FranceAgriMer raised forecast exports to countries outside the EU by 300,000 tonnes last month to 10.6 million tonnes, which is 21% higher than last year. In comparison, it lowered its estimated exports again to EU member states by 90,000 tonnes to 6.64 million tonnes (down 17% year on year).

France exported 7.5 million tonnes of wheat between July 1, 2022, and January 16, 2023, according to data received from the European Commission.

FranceAgriMer had already raised its export forecast for soft wheat last month, noting there had been a sharp increase in exports to Morocco and China.

In a briefing to accompany the release of the monthly report, the agency noted that in addition to this, French wheat was now looking more competitive for sales into Algeria and Egypt.

Overall wheat exports are expected at 17.63 million tonnes, up 2.5% from the 2022-23 season.

French soft wheat ending stocks are expected at 2.32 million tonnes, a decrease from the December estimate, which would put them 16% below the 2.77 million tonnes held last season.

FranceAgriMer forecast for intra-EU barley exports saw a minimal decrease from last month’s figures, lowering by 15,000 tonnes to 3.04 million tonnes (up 8.1% year on year). Similar exports outside the EU also decreased by 50,000 mt to 2.45 million tonnes (down 27.5%).

French monthly corn exports in 2022-23 to the EU decreased slightly to just over 2.96 million tonnes, down 39.5% year on year, while expected exports to countries outside the EU went unchanged on the month, remaining at 360,000 tonnes (down 39% year on year).

Overall, corn exports are expected to fall to 3.43 million for the season (down 38.7% year on year) from its 2021 figure of 5.6 million tonnes.

French durum export estimates to the EU increased to 820,000 tonnes, while non-EU exports were unchanged at 110,000 tonnes.

This reflects a reduction of 17.1% year on year from 989,000 tonnes for exports to the EU last year and an increase of 16.8% from 94,000 tonnes for third countries.

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