Trade indications showing the first outright selling indications of renewable transport fuel certificates (RTFCs) for the 2024 compliance year have been heard in the market, with an offer heard suggesting value could be at parity to the current 2023 tickets.
The indication comes around a month after the first derived 2024 indication was heard in the market at the end of July when a market participant offered a spread trade for the value of 2024 tickets in relation to the 2023 ticket.
At the time, the indication also suggested that values for the 2024 compliance year would likely stick close to the value of certificates in the 2023 compliance year.
BP was heard offering between 2 and 5 million 2024 non-crop related certificates for transfer in March 2025 at 21.5 pence per certificate.
That level was on par with its own 2023 certificate, where levels were heard bid at 19.5 pence per certificate and offered at 21.5 pence per certificate, also for non-crop related tickets.
Other trade sources confirmed they had also heard the offer being floated in the marketplace but suggested that there was “no buying interest for now.”
With no buying indications heard, the offer acts only as a cap to potential value – with the actual certificate value potentially below that of the 2023 ticket, which Fastmarkets Agriculture valued at 20 pence per certificate for non-crop, and at 19 pence per certificate for crop-based certificates on August 25.
The UK sets an outright blend target for parties that are obligated under the terms of the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO), with the mandate rising year on year out until 2032 when it peaks at just over 21% of the road fuel supply.
Waste-based or non-crop biofuels usage promoted
However, within that target, the UK also sets sub-targets intended to cap the use of crop-based biofuels and promote both waste-based, non-crop biofuels and so-called advanced biofuels like hydrogen or synthetic biogas.
Obligated parties within the UK can meet their target either by physically blending biofuels to meet the target – or by trading RTFCs that are generated whenever someone supplies sustainable fuels into the UK supply.
Typically, crop-based biofuels will generate one certificate for each liter of fuel supplied into the UK, with waste-based biofuels often eligible for other incentives such as double counting, where one liter of biofuel delivered generates two tickets.
Advanced biofuels and biofuels derived from highly prized feedstocks will often generate even more tickets.
From 2024, the UK’s biofuel blend target will rise from 14.22% to 14.9% of the entire fuel supply – although the contribution from any first-generation crop-based biofuels will be reduced from a maximum of 3.5% of the entire fuel supply to 3.33%.
Similarly, the percentage expected to come from non-crop, largely waste-based feedstocks will increase to 10.2%, from around 9.6% in 2023, while development fuels will increase from 1.14% to 1.37%.
For more information on biofuels market trends, visit our dedicated page for biofuel prices.
