Germany’s UFOP warns current rapeseed output ‘insufficient’ to meet demand

Germany's UFOP highlighted a global rapeseed supply shortage, urging increased planting in 2025 to meet demand amidst reduced production forecasts

Germany’s vegetable oil trade group UFOP warned that current global rapeseed production forecasts suggest there will not be enough of the oilseed available to meet demand and pushed for more planting in 2025 in a press release published on Thursday July 4.

The statement builds on forecasts from the International Grain Council (IGC); it recently announced that total rapeseed production is expected to reach 87.2 million tonnes, down by 1 million tonnes from the previous forecast and a 2% drop compared with the previous year.

Much of the reduction in the forecast was attributed to a smaller Australian crop projection, which was cut by 700,000 tonnes to 5.4 million tonnes, representing close to 78% of the entire global reduction.

IGC has forecast demand at 88.7 million tonnes, down by 0.5%, leaving a global shortfall of 1.5 million tonnes and putting pressure on end-of-year stocks.

“At 5.6 million tonnes, the amount of rapeseed in storage would be as much as around 21% smaller than it was the previous year and 1 million tonnes smaller than forecast last month,” UFOP warned in the press release.

Demand for rapeseed oil in biodiesel fuel and future hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) production is supported by the discontinuation of the option of crediting palm oil-based biofuels toward greenhouse gas reduction obligations in Germany and other EU member states, including France and Sweden, the report said.

That teed up an opportunity for farmers to capitalize on expectations of higher prices for the oilseed, just when changing legislation would likely curb demand for rival soft oils.

Rapeseed is both a staple of cooking oil production and a mainstay of European biodiesel demand – its superior cold properties favor its use in the harsher European winter conditions, with Europe, Australia and Canada being among the biggest producers of the oilseed.

Despite Europe moving toward a future biofuel landscape that is less reliant upon both crop-based feedstocks in general and palm oil use specifically, mandates and targets in the decades ahead are likely to strain feedstock balances.

For sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) alone, Europe is tilting at achieving a 70% minimum SAF blend by 2050 – although the bloc will introduce a 2% minimum in 2025.

View our veg oil prices

What to read next
Early trade indications for renewable transport fuel certificates for the 2025 compliance year have surfaced for the first time, with initial bids suggesting values might be around parity or slightly discounted compared with current certificates
Brazilian soybean exports maintained a robust pace in July, surpassing last year's figures, while corn shipments faced challenges in keeping up with demand.
Black Sea sunflower oil prices have declined by 5% over the past 10 days after reaching season-high levels, trade sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday June 27
Fastmarkets has corrected its US, Brazil and China (US Gulf) soybean crush margins, which were published incorrectly on June 20.
The European Commission released its latest set of data on the imports of soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, sunflower oil and palm oil into the EU
Fastmarkets will not publish any price assessments for corn, soybean, Americas vegoils and meals, or US wheat, on Wednesday June 19.