Global wheat price commentary: US, European futures advance for first time in six sessions

US and European wheat futures advanced for the first time in six sessions on Friday June 27 while market participants speculated that this week’s price declines were steeper than justified by market fundamentals and after China and the US confirmed that they reached a trade agreement.

By 1pm US Eastern time, the Chicago soft red winter (SRW) July futures contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) had increased by 6 cents per bushel to $5.27 per bu, and the September contract rose by 5 cents per bu to $5.42 per bu.

The Kansas hard red winter (HRW) July futures contract climbed by 1 cent per bu to $5.19 per bu, and the September contract rose by 1 cent per bu to $5.35 per bu.

The Minneapolis hard red spring (HRS) July futures contract advanced by less than 1 cent per bu to $6.07 per bu, and the September futures contract rose by 1 cent per bu to $6.27 per bu.

The September French milling wheat contract on Euronext had increased by €0.75 per tonne to €196 ($229.68) per tonne by 6:30pm Central European time, while the December contract had advanced by €0.25 per tonne to €208 per tonne.

In the cash market, a group of South Korean millers continued to purchase milling wheat, picking up 85,000 tonnes of US-origin product of different grades for August 15-September 15 shipment.

Australian export values are stable to firmer but overall slow

In Australia, trade sources said that export values were stable to firmer amid an appreciation of the Australian dollar in the last few days, but overall trade was slow, making it difficult to gauge the extent of any increase.

Still, an unusually big gap was reported between offers from New South Wales and Western Australia ports. Australian standard white (ASW) from eastern ports was heard offered just below $240 per tonne FOB, while an idea heard from Western ports was almost $10 per tonne above — the difference is usually $6-7 per tonne.

In Asia, Black Sea 11.5% wheat offers were still indicated around $265 per tonne CFR Indonesia, while bids ranged $252-255 per tonne.

More bids than offers were seen in the Black Sea on Friday, resulting in firmer prices for Russian July loading 12.5% wheat.

Buying ideas for Russian 12.5% wheat were heard at $221-225.50 per tonne FOB Novorossiysk-Taman-Tuapse (NTT) for July shipping dates, about $1.50 per tonne higher than Thursday’s ideas.

Bids for Russian 11.5% were reported at $218 per tonne FOB NTT, while selling ideas for Bangladesh were steady at $260 per tonne CFR Bangladesh for July-August loading.

In Ukraine, 11.5% wheat selling ideas were heard at $225 per tonne FOB Pivdennyi-Odesa-Chornomorsk (POC) versus $218 per tonne for July-August shipment.

On a delivered basis, selling ideas for 11.5% wheat were indicated at $240-244 per tonne against $235 per tonne CIF Egypt for July-August shipping dates. Meanwhile, a trade was rumored to have been closed at $234 per tonne CIF Egypt on Thursday, but this could not be confirmed by the time of publication.

Ukrainian feed wheat offered at $214/tonne, bids below $210

Ukrainian new crop feed wheat cargoes were offered at $214 per tonne FOB for July-August loading, while the bids were still below $210 per tonne, with some sources suggesting that sellers might come down to this level.

In the EU Black Sea, new crop offers of 11.5% wheat were indicated at a €2-per-tonne discount to the September Euronext wheat contract for August loading dates on an FOB Constanta-Varna-Burgas (CVB) basis.

Some offers for new crop 12.5% wheat cargoes were reported €1-2 per tonne below the September Euronext wheat contract for August loading dates. No bids were reported.

FOB CVB Barley was offered at a discount of €26-27 per tonne to the Euronext September wheat contract, against bids €30 per tonne below the same basis. No trades were reported.

In Europe, French market participants said FOB 11% wheat cargoes in the country were offered around €1 per tonne above the September Euronext wheat contract for August loading dates.

In Germany, FOB barley cargoes were offered for August loading at a €32-per-tonne discount to the December Euronext wheat contract. September offers of barley on an FOB basis from German ports were at a €24-per-tonne discount to the December Euronext wheat contract.

The German 12.5% FOB wheat APM for August loading was assessed €1 per tonne above the December Euronext contract, with no indications received to disprove the previous assessment. No data was excluded.

The 11% FOB US Gulf HRW front-month premiums were mixed, with July down by 25 cents per bu to 95 cents per bu over the July Kansas HRW futures contract, and August unchanged at 95 cents per bu above the September Kansas HRW futures contract.

The 10.5% FOB US Gulf SRW premiums were unchanged, with July at 60 cents per bu over the July Chicago SRW futures, and August at 45 cents per bu over the September contract.

The 10% FOB Pacific Northwest soft white price assessment for July rose by $1.75 per bu to $226.50 per bu, and the August assessment increased by $1.75 per bu to $226.50 per bu.

Canadian farmers are expected to plant 26.9 million acres (10.9 million hectares) of wheat this year, up from 26.8 million acres in 2024, Statistics Canada (Stat Can) said in a report on Friday June 27.

The wheat acreage total was lower than analysts’ average estimates of 27.7 million acres before the data release.

The area planted with durum wheat is forecast to total 6.53 million acres in 2025, up from 6.36 million acres in 2024 and higher than the 6.37 million acres projected in March.

Analysts expected that Stat Can would report that 6.3 million acres were planted with durum.

Canada western red spring 13.5% FOB Vancouver front-month premiums were steady, with July flat at $1.50 per bu over the July CBOT futures contract and August at $1.40 per bu over the September CBOT contract.

Canadian durum prices were unchanged, with cargoes of 14.5% wheat FOB Vancouver at $310 per tonne, while FOB St Lawrence cargoes were reported at $320 per tonne.

In Argentina, July offers declined by $3 per tonne to $232 per tonne, while August offers dropped by $4 per tonne to $234 per tonne. Bids were unchanged at $227 per tonne.

To stay on top of it all and offset the financial risks that come with such high volatility, market players must keep up to date with the changing prices and drivers. Our global and local insights-driven wheat news and prices help you to manage risk and make the right business decisions when trading in this constantly evolving market.

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