Hydrogen-based production to drive DRI output growth after 2040, IIMA says

Global output of direct-reduced iron (DRI) will continue to grow and will mostly involve hydrogen-based production from 2040 onward, John Atherton, secretary-general of the International Iron Metallics Association (IIMA), said at Fastmarkets’ International Iron Ore Conference in Dusseldorf, Germany, on Wednesday June 8

“We see a gradual reduction of natural gas-based DRI production starting from 2040, with increasing production based on natural gas with CCUS [carbon capture, utilization and storage] and with increasing hydrogen-based production,” Atherton said, citing the International Energy Agency as his source.

Hydrogen-based DRI production capacity will total about 10 million tonnes per year by 2030, while total output was expected to be 167 million tonnes. In 2019, almost all of the total global output of 116 million tonnes of DRI was produced using natural gas.

“DRI-making equipment which is designed to use natural gas will not be stopped or demolished, it will be modernized to use natural gas but with [the addition of] CCUS,” Atherton told Fastmarkets on the sidelines of the event.

Total global DRI production was expected to reach 269 million tonnes in 2040, of which 174 million tonnes would be from natural gas-based output, 14 million tonnes would use natural gas with CCUS, and 80 million tonnes would be produced using hydrogen.

In 2050, DRI production was expected to be 411 million tonnes, with 213 million tonnes – more than half – being from hydrogen-based processes.

Global DRI output was expected to reach 638 million tonnes by 2070. Of this tonnage, 73.82% (471 million tonnes) would be produced using hydrogen, and only 26.17% (167 million tonnes) would still require the use of natural gas.

What to read next
The Mexico Metals Outlook 2025 conference explored challenges and opportunities in the steel, aluminum and scrap markets, focusing on tariffs, nearshoring, capacity growth and global trends.
The prices in question are: MB-STE-0100 Steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), export, fob main port UK, $ per tonneMB-STE-0099 Steel scrap shredded, export, fob main port UK, $ per tonneMB-STE-0095 Steel scrap shredded, import, cfr delivered Turkish port, $ per tonneMB-STE-0420 Steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), fob Rotterdam, $ per tonne. Increasing the frequency of assessment of […]
This consultation was done as part of our annual methodology review process. This notice was delayed past its original May 2 schedule. No feedback was received during the consultation period and therefore no changes will be made to the methodology at this stage. This consultation sought to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the […]
Given the prevailing specifications of mid-grade fines in the seaborne spot market, Fastmarkets proposes to launch the index to track and reflect the spot price of 60-63% Fe iron ore fines in the CFR Qingdao spot market, aligning with the latest quality of mid-grade fines commonly traded in the market. The specifications would be as […]
Following an initial consultation under the ongoing review of Fastmarkets’ iron ore 62% Fe fines index name and specifications, Fastmarkets is proposing changes to the name and specifications of the Fastmarkets value-in-use adjustment values. The new specifications would be as follows, with amendments in italics: MB-IRO-0018 Iron ore 61% fines, % Fe VIU, cfr Qingdao, $/tonneIron Value In Use adjustments […]
Trump’s first 100 days in his second term have reignited debates over the impact of tariffs on the US steel industry. While the administration claims tariffs protect American jobs and boost the economy, experts point to rising costs and uncertainties affecting businesses. From higher steel prices to strained trade relations, the effects are already being felt, leaving many questioning the future of US steel and related markets.