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European sustainable fuels industry group Transport & Environment (T&E) has said that ambitious 2030 sustainable aviation fuel targets could be realised, but up to 45 projects slated to produce the biofuel are still awaiting final investment decisions.
The Brussels-based group released analysis showing that the core of these 45 projects – scattered from Figueira da Foz in Portugal, through to Helguvok Harbour in Iceland – could produce up to 1.7 million tonnes of sustainable jet fuel by 2030, but only if investment decisions are made soon.
The research suggests there are 25 industrial scale projects proposed, augmented by a further 20 pilot projects.
Norway leads the pack in terms of announced projects, with a 120,000-tonne electrofuels (efuels) facility expected to be constructed in Heroya, and expected to be online by 2029 – although Germany is mulling an even bigger 164,000 tonnes per year facility to be constructed somewhere in the east of the country.
Collectively, the 25 industrial projects – all of which are envisioned to come online from 2026 onwards – would be expected to deliver enough volume to comfortably surpass the estimated 600,000 tonnes of mandated demand that would be expected by 2030.
T&E’s own research suggests that at full capacity, European capacity would be able to power the equivalent of 70,000 trans-Atlantic flights.
Under its ReFuelEU initiative, the European Union has committed to raising a blend mandate for sustainable aviation fuels over the next two and a half decades, with a 2% mandate expected to be in place by 2025.
That blend target rises every five years through to 2050, reaching 6% in 2030 before charging on to 20% by 2035, and eventually topping out in 2050, when all intra-EU or long haul flights taking off from an EU airport should be fueled by a minimum 70% SAF.
Such has been the ambition around the project – with the US also committing to an equally ambitious 35 billion gallon SAF mandate over the same timeframe – that some have cast doubt on the availability of feedstocks to meet the targets, and so-called efuels are likely to play a major role.
Efuels are generated using hydrogen and CO2 – often extracted from air – with the mixture then used as a feedstock to other processes to make hydrocarbons like jet fuel.
The fuels could be a major tool in the battle to decarbonise transportation and would skirt round the obvious issues in the food versus fuel debate that often marks biofuel debate, with initial expectations around increased SAF mandates focusing on oilseed feedstock supplies.
Most of the paths to producing SAF have relied upon vegetable oils and, while animal fats, tallows and used cooking oils are increasingly incentivized for use in this area, serious doubts have been expressed over the availability of enough feedstocks to meet loft targets.
Nonetheless, T&E warned that the promising landscape for projects could yet be undone if final investment decisions are not made soon.
“For the moment, no major e-kerosene project has achieved final investment decision (FID),” the research from T&E said, meaning “the materialisation of these projects is still very uncertain.”
“We see proposals for e-kerosene plants springing up like mushrooms around Europe… We need to move from paper to reality and ensure that the e-kerosene projects truly materialise, or else the law will be nothing but empty words,” Camille Mutrelle, SAF expert at T&E warned.
Much of the capacity is focused on Germany and France, with Germany setting its own target of 0.5% in 2026, rising to 2% in 2030.
France has pledged €200 million in government funding to support SAF projects, and T&E estimates that both countries could contribute 300,000 tonnes apiece by 2030.
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