MORNING VIEW: Base metals upbeat despite numerous global headwinds

The base metals were generally upbeat this morning, Friday November 20, supported by demand expectations and a weaker dollar.

  • Metals unfazed by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s call not to extend emergency lending programs to businesses
  • European Union still struggling to pass its €1.18 billion ($1.40 billion) coronavirus rescue package

Base metals
Three-month base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mainly stronger, the exception was tin that was down by 0.5% at $18,660 per tonne, while the rest were up by between 0.5% for both aluminium ($1,998 per tonne) and nickel ($15,925 per tonne) and 0.9% for zinc ($2,778.50 per tonne). Copper was up by 0.6% at $7,136 per tonne.

Likewise, the most-traded base metals contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mainly up, the exception again being January tin that was down by 1.3%, while the rest were up by an average of 1.5% – led by a 2.7% rise in December lead that seems to be playing catch-up, while January copper was up by 0.9% at 53,260 yuan ($8,094) per tonne.

Precious metals
Spot gold prices were down by 0.2% at $1,867.40 per oz, silver was up by 0.8% at $24.14 per oz, platinum was up by 1.1% at $957.10 per oz and palladium was up by 0.9% at $2,337.50 per oz.

Wider markets
The yield on US 10-year treasuries has edged lower, it was recently quoted at 0.83%, this after 0.86% at a similar time on Thursday.

Asia-Pacific equities were mixed this morning: the ASX 200 (-0.12%), the Nikkei (-0.42%), the Kospi (+0.24%), the CSI (+0.31%) and the Hang Seng (+0.24%).

Currencies
The US dollar index is weak and in low ground and was recently quoted at 92.21, this after 92.45 at a similar time on Thursday – support is seen between 92.13 and 91.73.

While the dollar is weak, the other major currencies were firmer: the euro (1.1887), sterling (1.3282), the Australian dollar (0.7297) and the yen (103.75).

Key data
Data already out on Friday showed the read of the United Kingdom’s consumer confidence from GfK fall to -33 in November, from -31in October, and Japan’s flash manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 48.3 in November, from 48.7 in October.

Data out later includes the German producer price index, UK retail sales, UK public sector borrowing and EU consumer confidence.

In addition, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Federal Open Market Committee member Robert Kaplan are scheduled to speak.

Today’s key themes and views
The base metals remain upbeat despite some hesitation in major equity indices and that suggests investors are still focused on the outlook for demand that should be boosted by infrastructure spending.
Our concern remains that prices may have run ahead of the fundamentals and be vulnerable to a correction if equities turn from consolidating to weakness.

Gold has once again found support in the $1,850s per oz area, helped by the weaker dollar, but the yellow metal remains vulnerable.


What to read next
The publication of Fastmarkets’ assessments for copper grade A cathode warrant premiums and aluminium P1020A warrant premiums was delayed on Wednesday March 11 because of a procedural lapse. Fastmarkets’ pricing database has been updated.
Guinea, the world's biggest bauxite producer, is considering plans to compel miners to curb exports of bauxite in a bid to halt the slump in the price of the key raw material for aluminium production, sources told Fastmarkets on Monday March 9.
Canadian miner Teck Resources and Korea Zinc have agreed to set treatment charges (TCs) for zinc concentrates at $85 per tonne this year, a slight adjustment from last year’s all-time low of $80 per tonne, four sources told Fastmarkets on Friday March 6.
Lundin Mining and BHP published a preliminary economic assessment on February 16 for their Vicuña joint venture, projecting average annual copper production of 395,000 tonnes over the first 25 years of operation as Argentina’s copper concentrate pipeline continues to build. PSJ Cobre Mendocino separately confirmed on February 14 that its feasibility study was under way.
Chinese lead smelters turned more bearish on the procurement of raw materials in the week to Friday February 13, amid heightened price volatility in silver, which is often contained in lead ores as an important by-product and contributor to smelter profits, sources told Fastmarkets.
This consultation was done as part of our published annual methodology review process. No feedback was received about a methodology change during the consultation period and therefore no changes will be made to the methodologies at this stage. This consultation sought to ensure that our methodologies continue to reflect the physical CFR Manila steel billet market, in […]