Red Dog zinc concentrates beat forecast during narrow shipping window – Teck

Key takeaways:

• Red Dog zinc concentrates shipments surpassed Teck’s initial forecasts amid trade challenges with China
• Strong Red Dog zinc production helped Teck achieve higher overall quarterly output in 2025
• Forecasts show Red Dog zinc output will decline steadily as the mine nears closure in 2032

Canadian miner Teck Resources beat its own forecast for shipments of zinc concentrates from the giant Red Dog mine in Alaska, despite previous doubts over sales to China. The company said this on Wednesday, October 21. Shipments from Red Dog had been thrown into doubt after Chinese smelters had previously rejected some zinc from the mine, after refusing to absorb costs from the China’s 10% reciprocal tariff on exports from the US, sources told Fastmarkets in September.

Red Dog zinc concentrates outperform Teck’s quarterly expectations

But Teck said on Wednesday that it had sold 272,800 tonnes of Red Dog zinc to China in its “third-quarter window”. This was an 8% year-on-year increase and above the company’s initial forecast of about 200,000-250,000 tonnes.

The Alaska mine ships the zinc concentrates to smelters in China from July to October. This occurs before the onset of winter makes logistics difficult.

Teck’s total zinc concentrates sales rose 14% to 305,700 tonnes during the third quarter, the company said.

The miner had been haggling with smelters on how to share the cost from China’s reciprocal 10% tariff on US exports, sources told Fastmarkets in September.

Teck “typically’’ sells a portion of its zinc and lead concentrates to Chinese smelters, it said. The company disclosed this without specifying which smelters took the material.

Consistent Red Dog zinc production reinforces Teck’s 2025 outlook

“The 2025 Red Dog shipping season was completed on October 21, and we have worked proactively with our global customers over the course of this year. This was to reallocate material where needed and minimize [the impact on] our business,” Teck said.

Fastmarkets’ twice-monthly assessment of the zinc spot concentrate TC, cif China rose by 7.32% to $100-120 per tonne on October 10. This was up from $95-110 per tonne a fortnight earlier.

The Vancouver-based miner’s overall forecast for 2025 is for 525,000-575,000 tonnes of zinc concentrates. The bulk of the material will come from the Red Dog mine.

Teck said zinc metal output from its Trail operations in British Columbia in southwest Canada, which is supplied into the US market, is forecast at 190,000-230,000 tonnes for 2025.

It also aims to produce 415,000-465,000 tonnes of copper this year, it said. This is lower than an initial forecast due to production challenges at the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile.

Red Dog zinc output projected to taper as mine approaches closure

Teck’s zinc concentrates output will drop to 430,000-480,000 tonnes in 2026. The decline will accelerate thereafter because the Red Dog mine will be nearing the end of its life in 2032, Teck said.

Red Dog, which was developed in 1982, is one of the world’s biggest zinc mines. It is located about 170 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle in northwest Alaska.

Red Dog zinc production will decline to 230,000-270,000 tonnes in 2028 as its ore grades gradually decline, Teck said.

Teck’s total zinc concentrates output will fall to 275,000-325,000 tonnes in 2028, Teck said. This is down from a previous forecast of 290,000-320,000 tonnes.

And while the market had already factored the cuts to Red Dog output, the revisions to production announced by Teck “signal a quicker pace of decline,” Fastmarkets analyst James Moore said.

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