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Key takeaways:
Despite accelerated fieldwork, the pace remained behind 2024, when 13.68 million hectares had been harvested by the same date – a 24.5% year-on-year lag in harvested area. Cumulative grain and leguminous output was down by 13.10 million tonnes, or 28%, compared with 46.85 million tonnes a year earlier.
Average yields were reported at 3.27 tonnes per ha, a marginal decrease from 3.28 tonnes per ha the week before, and 4.5% below the 2024 average of 3.42 tonnes per ha.
The Russian wheat harvest continued to progress, advancing by 3.9 percentage points to 27.8% of the total 29.95 million ha planted. This corresponded to 8.33 million ha harvested as of July 21, up from 17.6% (5.27 million ha) the week before.
Nonetheless, the area harvested was still 27.1% lower year on year, down from the 11.43 million ha cleared by the same point in 2024.
Wheat production reached 28.39 million tonnes, but was still down by 12.37 million tonnes, or 30.3%, from 40.76 million tonnes last year.
Average wheat yields were steady at 3.41 tonnes per ha, unchanged from the previous week. This was still 4.5% below the 3.57 tonnes per ha in 2024.
In 2024, the overall average final yield for wheat sown in Russia was 2.93 tonnes per ha, according to the country’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
The barley harvest continued to advance, reaching 15.4% of the total 7.50 million ha sown – up from 12.9% (966,300 ha) a week earlier. As of July 21, 1.15 million ha had been harvested, though this remained 10.6% below the 1.29 million ha harvested by the same date last year.
Cumulative barley output stood at 3.59 million tonnes, compared with 4.30 million tonnes a year earlier – a 16.4% decline in volume.
Yields dropped to 3.12 tonnes per ha, down from 3.33 tonnes per ha in 2024 – a 6.5% decrease year on year.
In 2024, the overall average final yield for barley sown in Russia was 2.46 tonnes per ha, according to Rosstat.
Russia’s rapeseed harvest progressed slowly, reaching 7.4% of the 2.96 million ha planted – up from 6% (179,100 ha) a week earlier. As of July 21, 218,300 ha had been harvested, down by 25.1% from 291,400 ha at the same time last year.
Production dropped more sharply, down by 36.5% year on year to 393,300 tonnes, compared with 619,400 tonnes last season. Yields declined to 1.80 tonnes per ha, from 2.13 tonnes per ha last year – a 15.3% drop.
In 2024, the overall average final yield for rapeseed sown in Russia was 1.75 tonnes per ha, according to Rosstat.
Harvesting of soybeans began in earnest, with initial data showing 200 tonnes collected from 200 hectares – just 0.004% of the planned 4.47 million ha. The first reported average yield was 1.43 tonnes per ha.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has officially trimmed its 2025 wheat and export forecasts, citing extensive drought damage in key producing regions. The wheat harvest is expected to total 88 million tonnes, down by 2 million tonnes from the previous 90 million tonne forecast, while wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing season were revised to 43-44 million tonnes, compared with the earlier projection of 45 million tonnes.
The ministry did not specify whether this figure includes Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia (Luhansk, and parts of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions). However, based on previous reporting and official practice, it likely does.
Despite the downgrade, the ministry maintains its overall grain harvest outlook at 135 million tonnes, supported by better-than-expected yields in Stavropol, central Russia and parts of Siberia, which are expected to partially offset deep losses in southern regions. In Rostov, for example – Russia’s top wheat producer in 2024 – output is forecast to fall by 30% to just 8 million tonnes amid prolonged drought and extreme heat.
The Ministry’s revisions came after multiple leading analysts had already lowered their outlooks earlier in July. These private forecasts do not include grain production from Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) recently cut its wheat production forecast to 84 million tonnes, down from 84.5 million, with a warning that further reductions may be needed depending on harvest results in central and Volga regions. IKAR also lowered its total grain production estimate to 130.3 million tonnes, citing extreme dryness across southern zones.
According to IKAR’s regional breakdown, wheat output in southern Russia could fall to 30.9 million tonnes, its lowest in five years (from 32.6 million in 2024), while central Russia may rebound to 20.3 million tonnes (up from 16.8 million). The Volga region is expected at 18.9 million tonnes (compared with 17.7 million), with Siberia projected to decline to 8.9 million tonnes (from 10.2 million).
ProZerno, another analytical firm, has offered a more bearish view. In its mid-July forecast, the group downgraded total grain production to 129.4 million tonnes, with the wheat output at just 82.5 million tonnes – citing “severe yield collapse” in Rostov, Krasnodar and Crimea. ProZerno also revised down its wheat export projection to 38-39 million tonnes, calling the upper bound “increasingly unrealistic.”
Meanwhile, SovEcon raised its wheat production forecast to 83.6 million tonnes in mid-July, up from 83 million previously, citing improved conditions in central Russia. However, this estimate may be revised lower if unfavorable weather persists into late July.
While some improvements are still expected in central regions and the Urals, analysts widely agree that Russia’s 2025 harvest is unlikely to match last year’s level, let alone the record highs of prior seasons. Weather-related losses in the South – including an estimated 8% damage to total planted area from spring frosts and drought – have already pushed early season yields well below trend.
Based on the latest public estimates from leading private forecasters, the current consensus forecast places Russia’s 2025 wheat crop in a range of 82.5-83.6 million tonnes. This compares with 82.6 million tonnes in 2024 (excluding new territories), according to Rosstat.
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