“The important thing to note here, is the tariffs are coming and hitting in all directions,” Adam Shaffer, vice president of international trade and global affairs at ReMA said.
While attendees at the convention continually reported frustration regarding uncertainty and difficulties stemming from tariffs implemented since US President Donald Trump took office in January, panelists talked through tariffs with more mixed views.
“The administration isn’t trying to be protectionist,” Nazak Nikakhtar, chair of national security practice and partner at Wiley Rein, said, adding that the administration has said that the tariffs are “negotiating leverage” for trade deals.
Speaking on the recently announced US-UK trade deal, she said that deal “slightly improved the status quo” and “signaled to the world that the US isn’t trying to put tariffs on just for the sake of tariffs. It’s really trying to achieve an outcome.”
Policy aims to reshore US manufacturing
Nikakhtar said one of the goals of the Trump administration’s trade policy was to push onshoring US manufacturing and bring back related jobs, and build US technological leadership.
Additionally, Nikakhtar said, the administration is trying to make it easier for companies to operate through deregulation and funding needed critical capabilities.
However, Adam Shaffer in his presentation on May 14 noted that the WTO is starting to recognize that there are “deep declines” in trade in North America, and that while the scrap metal industry in the US exports more than it imports, many of ReMA members’ business is reliant on imports.
“There’s a lot of two-way trade that is happening here,” Shaffer said.
“In terms of value, we’re exporting about $28 billion worth of recycled materials to the global marketplace,” Shaffer said, “but in terms of imports, we’re importing about $7-8 billion.”
Challenges for exporters in trade dynamics
Shaffer said: “The tariff policies are generally import focused as a way for the [Trump] administration to try to reshore and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. But caught in the crosshairs, I think, is the potential for a lot of these exports to get caught up” both in terms of retaliation from other countries and/or through other disruptions to trade.
Other attendees talked about the need to export, with one saying that while they “don’t want” to export, but they still have to with current market dynamics. This was repeated throughout the week, with conference attendees noting the necessity of exports, and with current trade policy uncertainty keeping exports down year on year.
Other attendees talked about the negative consequences of tariffs, with many reporting concerns regarding the flow of material and recyclers staying afloat in difficult economic and policy circumstances.
A second attendee said that export suppliers are “thin on the ground” due to uncertainty regarding tariffs, but noted that they were optimistic because the situation “can’t get much worse.”
Importance of trade corridors for critical materials
Nikakhtar said that while “yes, there will be negative consequences and repercussions” of Trump trade policy, “you can’t not do anything, right? The status quo isn’t working, but if you do something there’s going to be pain until you sort out what you’re going to do and then reach equilibrium.”
However, a market source said on Tuesday May 20 that there were seeming some “quite bearish” signals from the copper scrap market, and said that it does seem US markets are in that pain point.
Nikakhtar said it was necessary for some trade corridors to remain open due to critical materials, and said that while the current administration is trying to onshore as much manufacturing as possible, trade agreements remain very important because the US government “can’t support every manufacturing sector that we want here.”
Amid this new trade policy, there is room for the recycling industry to have a say, Nikakhtar said, and that while there isn’t a great understanding within the Trump administration “how the American recycling industry is so foundational to our critical capabilities,” there is an “educational and awareness component” and initiatives “where recycling will have a lot to say.”
Copper market challenges amid trade shifts
Other panelists also said there were potential benefits from tariffs. Adam Estelle, president and chief executive officer of the Copper Development Association, speaking at the Spotlight on Copper panel on May 14, said there was an “urgent need” to reindustrialize America’s domestic copper industry, and said the trade imbalance with China was holding dominance in copper processes.
There is concern not just for US market participants, but for “many other countries around the world as well,” Estelle said, because China can greatly influence the market “on their terms.”
While “China was ascending, the US was going in the opposite direction,” Estelle said.
China has been the largest importer of US scrap, though tonnages fell by 36.04% from January-March compared with January-March 2024. Market sources have reported less demand from China for US material since the US presidential election in November 2024.
Outlook on tariffs and copper industry priorities
Estelle also discussed the potential impacts of ongoing Section 232 trade investigations into copper markets. saying that while there has been support from mid-steam market participants, original equipment manufacturers have largely been against tariffs.
Alongside that, Estelle said that they think some target export controls of high purity copper grades, including copper scrap, “is a strategic priority in this country.”
But, Estelle said, in order to achieve the projected doubling in demand for copper by 2035, the US will need an “all of the above” approach to sourcing copper, including more mining, more recycling and continued imports of refined copper cathode.
Nikakhtar also talked about the copper sector, saying that the US “recycle[s] more copper scrap than we know what to do with” and that exports are important to “have a trade surplus.”
But attendees continued to question on what, if any, positive effects were expected as a result of current tariff and trade deal negotiations.
Ed Meir president of Commodity Research Group, while moderating the Spotlight on Copper panel, questioned the desired outcomes of the current tariffs on China.
“In terms of the tariff discussions with the Chinese…. after the” current 90-day pause “my concern is that I’m not sure what the US is seeking from China, what are we going to be asking them? The usual complaints of 10, 15 years ago, they’re not as relevant anymore… what are we going to ask the Chinese to buy from us?”
“I’m just a little concerned as to what the end game is. I understand the concept that they need to open up… but I’m just concerned that this whole debate is about 15-20 years too late.” Meir said.
How are scrap metals and recyclable materials driving the circular economy? Find out from Fastmarkets.
