Soybean prices commentary: Futures tumble on renewed uncertainty over US-China agreement

Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell sharply on Monday July 7 on renewed uncertainty over a US-China trade agreement, which market participants expected on July 3.

In summary:

  • The front-month August CME futures contract for soybeans fell by 2.3%, while the most-traded November CME contract dropped by 2.86%.
  • The front-month August CME soyoil contract was down by 1.19% day on day, while the most-liquid September soyoil contract in China decreased by 0.63%, and the corresponding soymeal contract dropped by 0.58%.
  • Tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% were announced to be applied to some countries starting on August 1, with an additional 10% tariffs threatened on countries aligning with the BRICS trade organization

The front-month August CME futures contract fell day on day by 24 cents per bushel, 2.3%, trading at $10.31 per bu by 1pm US Eastern time.

The most-traded November CME contract fell by 2.86% to $10.19 per bu.

The administration of US President Donald Trump said that on July 9 it would announce tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% to be applied to some countries, with the higher rates to go into effect on August 1.

Separately, Trump threatened to impose additional 10% tariffs on countries that aligned with the BRICS trade organization, or what he called “anti-American policies.” The group is composed of 11 countries including China, Brazil, Russia and India, and has another 10 “partner nations.”

Market expectations from last week were not met over the weekend, and Monday started out on a selling tone, giving back gains made on Thursday, when investors also expected adverse weather events over the long weekend.

Instead, good weather in growing US regions favored crop development in the US Plains and the Midwest.

Soyoil futures fall

Soyoil futures also fell, following the soybean complex. Some strength in crude oil prices limited part of the negative pressure.

The front-month August CME soyoil contract was down by 1.19% day on day to 53.90 cents per lb at 1pm US Eastern time.

Crude oil prices went up in the session, amid a weakness in the US Dollar Index, expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve bank by the end of the year, and prospects of faster cuts to oil production.

At origin, the Brazilian FOB Paranaguá paper market basis for August loading was 18 cents per bu higher at 143 cents per bu over the August CME futures contract.

The August-loading FOB Santos premium was up by 18 cents per bu to 149 cents per bu over the August CME futures.

The Brazilian FOB September premium in the Paranaguá paper market hub increased by 20 cents per bu to 165 cents per bu over the CME September futures contract.

In the Santos hub, the September-loading basis was up by 20 cents per bu to 171 cents per bu over the September futures contract.

A rumor was heard of a trade concluded for February-loading at 40 cents per bu, but could not be confirmed.

The August-loading FOB premium in Argentina was down by 6 cents per bu, to 60 cents per bu over August CME futures.

The August-loading FOB premiums in the US Gulf and in the Pacific Northwest hub were unchanged at 87 and 106 cents per bu respectively, both over the August futures contract.

Soyoil price movements in China

In China, the world’s main destination market, the Dalian Commodity Exchange soyoil contract and the soymeal contract decreased marginally from the previous trading day.

The most-liquid September soyoil contract decreased by 0.63% to close at 7,894 yuan ($1,216) per tonne while the corresponding soymeal contract dropped by 0.58% to close at 2,937 yuan per tonne.

Market participants were keeping a close watch on the details of the US-China trade deal that would specifically affect the soybean market, and some market participants were expecting trading to pick up on Monday after the drop in the soybean futures in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Thursday.

The August soybean CFR China (Brazil) premium was assessed at 208 cents per bu over August CME futures, 12 cents per bu lower from the previous assessment and equivalent to an outright price of $456.25 per tonne.

Fastmarkets’ comprehensive coverage includes a wide range of veg oils and meals, including palm, coconut, cottonseed, peanut, sunflower and canola. Our dedicated team of price reporters and analysts monitors these markets daily to provide you with the most up-to-date pricing information. Learn more.

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