Tariff threat pushes up lumber prices despite average demand

The perpetually moving target of tariffs on Canadian lumber shipments to the US frustrated traders and had broad impacts on sales in many species.

Despite middling demand, the threat of tariffs combined with relatively tight supplies left many prices higher for the week. The delay in announcement of preliminary AD rates by the Commerce Department injected further uncertainty.

Despite inconsistent trading throughout February, the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Price recorded its fourth straight increase and hit $461. That is its highest level since July 2023.

Western S-P-F sales were steady but uneventful. Canadian mills weighed their responses to potential tariffs with plans ranging from adders on quoted levels to managing production and focusing sales to non-US destinations.

Lumber futures were extremely volatile, swinging aggressively to every news report, social media clip and offhanded comment from administration officials. A $61 swing in the May contract on Wednesday caught the attention of traders.

The Southern Pine market was in disarray as traders processed a constant flow of mixed signals that left near-term prospects increasingly difficult to gauge. Prices of many dimension items were reported on both sides of previously established levels.

At the end of the week, the lack of a clear consensus left most prices at or close to previously reported levels. Icy conditions gave way to warmer, drier weather across most consuming regions, which gave field consumption a boost after weeks of stagnation. However, many buyers stayed on the sidelines or replenished sparingly.

In the Coast region, sentiment was largely positive as the week drew to a close, but there was a palpable tension with the tariff uncertainty. Many traders reported more inquiries this week as building season approached, but some waited for trade certainty before securing purchases.

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