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The centerpiece of the meeting was US vice president JD Vance’s proposal for a preferential critical minerals trade bloc. Under the plan, participating countries would embed reference prices as a floor at every stage of production, upheld by adjustable tariffs, to deter waves of cheap supply that have historically undercut domestic investment.
“We will establish reference prices for critical minerals… and for members of the preferential zone, these reference prices will operate as a floor maintained through adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity,” Vance said at the summit.
This is no longer just about subsidies or stockpiles. The question of whether cheap imports crush nascent US processing capacity has shifted into an explicit pricing issue where the state signals what constitutes fair value.
That is a seismic shift from past US policy, which largely left price discovery to markets and leaned on tax incentives or strategic reserves.
Put simply, Washington is telling markets that cheap can be a liability when it stifles investment and heightens strategic risk. Relying on markets alone is not enough.
The logic is familiar to anyone who has watched thinly traded markets like rare earths, gallium or indium: volatility and opaque pricing have not helped encourage new capacity. Now those dynamics are being framed as national security risks.
For commodity traders used to liquidity and arms-length price discovery, this marks a notable inflection point with complex implications across forward curves, contracts and benchmark relevance. Price floors and bloc-specific rules could fragment trading and create new, bespoke references.
A preferential zone almost guarantees multiple prices for the same material: one inside the bloc, another outside it and a third for China-linked supply moving elsewhere.
Once pricing splits along geopolitical lines, global benchmarks risk fragmenting and losing universal clarity. Markets don’t wait around; they route risk through bespoke formulas, discounts and new references.
The launch of Project Vault only reinforces that shift.
With $10 billion in US Export-Import Bank funding earmarked for strategic stockpiles, Washington is signaling that it will step in when prices fall too far.
Guaranteed purchases and price floors may coax new capacity online, but in the short term they shrink spot market activity, the trades benchmarks rely on to signal real stress. Traders, producers and buyers who would normally transact in the open market either wait for the guaranteed buyer or are blocked by tariffs and floors.
Inside the proposed bloc, trades may clear above the reference price, often in government-backed contracts. Outside the bloc, the same material may trade at lower levels privately. The result is a split market and a split benchmark.
Once that happens, global benchmarks could struggle to remain global. The market has seen this movie before in sanctioned oil, low-carbon metals and ESG-screened supply such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the ending is usually a proliferation of niche references and bespoke pricing.
For derivative users, that is a nightmare because futures, swaps and hedging formulas reference prices that may no longer capture real market tension.
Arbitrage, another pillar of benchmark credibility, could also be affected. That is because traders rely on cross-border flows to equalize prices globally. Tariff-enforced floors inside the bloc, combined with free-trading non-bloc supply, mean arbitrage is not driven by economics; it is constrained by policy.
Washington’s plan is not just theoretical; major trading houses are already involved.
Mercuria, Traxys and Hartree were named as Project Vault partners, while Trafigura has been lobbying on policy design and was recently in the White House for discussions on Venezuelan oil.
Expect them to navigate the floors, tariffs and eligibility rules with the agility of seasoned arbitrageurs and, in doing so, show how the market could become more layered, with different prices for different streams of material.
The price-floor idea will now have to be fleshed out in technical working groups, bilateral negotiations and possibly Group of Seven or Mineral Security Partnership forums.
Markets will watch closely which commodities and benchmarks are included, how reference prices are calculated, whether the scheme respects World Trade Organization norms, plus enforcement timelines.
Pricing is now explicitly policy, not simply an output of market forces.
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