What is the outlook for the US ferrous scrap market?
- The December US ferrous scrap market trend indicator turns mildly bearish at 45.4
- The three-month trend indicator reflects an optimistic outlook for early 2025
- Both buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2
- Demand remains low and keeps prices down, but the market is poised for changes ahead
Read on for some highlights from our US ferrous scrap market survey for December or click here to download your copy of the full US scrap trends outlook.
US scrap market steadies amidst lower demand for December 2024
The December scrap market reflects a stable phase, with a mild bearish trend indicator of 45.4. However, optimism is building for early 2025, as the 3-month trend indicator shows positive momentum, and the 6-month trend indicator has reached its highest level in 18 months. Accordingly, the December scrap price change is forecasted at +0.8%.
Tariffs and foreign trade new conditions are influencing the market.
Survey participant
Cautious outlook and supply constraints
Consensus around the market direction remains measured. Buyers and brokers reflect a cautious outlook, with trend indicators at 43.4 and 43.8, respectively, while sellers show slightly more optimism at 49.2, although still below the neutral threshold of 50. Inventories across US scrap mills stand at 47.7, below the standard average of 50, indicating supply constraints.
Demand remains low, but the market is poised for changes ahead
Despite the flat movement expected for December, the higher forward-looking indicators suggest participants are preparing for potential shifts. Lower demand remains a key driver keeping prices subdued, but the market is poised for significant changes as 2025 unfolds.
